NTXX98 PHEB 190524 PTWC REDUNDANT-SIDE TEST FROM IRC RZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZ RZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZ NTXX99 PHEB 190525 TSTHEB primary-side test from PTWC IRC RZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZ RZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZRZ FZPN02 KWBC 190525 HSFEPI HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA XII NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 0545 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026 CCODE/2:31:12:11:00/AOW+POR+AOE/NWS/CCODE SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE). FOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BEYOND 48 HOURS REFERENCE THE ASSOCIATED NWS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY (TCM). SECURITE PACIFIC S OF 67N AND N OF 30N E OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO 53N172E TO 50N180W TO 30N180W ALL FORECASTS VALID OVER ICE FREE FORECAST WATERS SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUL 19. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUL 20. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUL 21. .WARNINGS. .NONE. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .LOW 56N164W 997 MB MOVING NE 05 KT. FROM 46N TO 60N BETWEEN 149W AND 176W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 4 M. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N164W 1005 MB. WITHIN 300 NM E QUADRANT AND N OF 43N BETWEEN 143W AND 154W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 48N TO 56N BETWEEN 154W AND 163W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH NEW LOW TO FORM NEAR 60N149W 1018 MB. N OF 58N BETWEEN 143W AND 149W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. .FROM 38N TO 44N E OF 128W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. .24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 38N TO 54N E OF 133W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 3 M. .48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 44N TO 54N E OF 136W NW TO N WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 35N TO 55N E OF 136W WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELIDA S OF AREA AND DESCRIBED IN PART II BELOW. S OF 32N BETWEEN 119W AND 135W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 3 M. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 58N178W 999 MB. WITHIN 540 NM SE AND 600 NM S QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. .DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM FROM 47N TO 54N BETWEEN 148W AND 162W AND FROM 50N TO 56N W OF 177E. .24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM E OF A LINE FROM 44N157W TO 49N153W TO 55N151W...FROM 58N TO 60N BETWEEN 144W AND 151W...AND FROM 45N TO 58N W OF 178W. .48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG FROM 49N TO 59N W OF 170W. .FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE EQUATOR E OF 120W SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN JUL 19. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON JUL 20. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUL 21. .WARNINGS. ...HURRICANE WARNING... .TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E NEAR 11.3N 109.1W 1008 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 19 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 15N106W TO 14N109W TO 11N109W TO 08N110W TO 08N107W TO 11N104W TO 15N106W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M. .12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIX-E NEAR 11.9N 110.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIX-E NEAR 12.6N 112.9W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER... EXCEPT WITHIN 45 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N109W TO 16N112W TO 14N114W TO 10N114W TO 09N112W TO 11N109W TO 15N109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N108W TO 17N115W TO 12N116W TO 08N113W TO 09N109W TO 12N107W TO 17N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIX-E NEAR 14.6N 116.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...270 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N111W TO 18N113W TO 18N118W TO 13N120W TO 08N118W TO 10N113W TO 16N111W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N108W TO 21N113W TO 18N120W TO 04N125W TO 01N122W TO 09N112W TO 15N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL. ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... .TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 20.6N 124.8W 993 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 19 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE... 240 NM SE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N120W TO 27N125W TO 23N133W TO 17N130W TO 16N123W TO 20N117W TO 24N120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N115W TO 26N120W TO 27N129W TO 23N135W TO 17N131W TO 10N120W TO 21N115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 24.0N 126.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE...360 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 270 NM QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 28N122W TO 29N128W TO 26N133W TO 20N132W TO 19N125W TO 22N121W TO 28N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N119W TO 27N120W TO 30N127W TO 22N138W TO 15N134W TO 13N126W TO 21N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 29.0N 127.7W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30N123W TO 30N133W TO 25N132W TO 25N126W TO 27N123W TO 30N123W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 27N122W TO 24N129W TO 30N133W TO 27N136W TO 17N135W TO 16N128W TO 27N122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 15N96W TO 14N96W TO 15N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. .24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. .30 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M. .WITHIN 11N86W TO 11N87W TO 11N88W TO 10N88W TO 10N87W TO 10N86W TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING 2.5 TO 3.0 M. .24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE. .48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 11N86W TO 12N87W TO 10N90W TO 09N93W TO 08N94W TO 08N89W TO 11N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M. .WITHIN 09N93W TO 10N94W TO 08N96W TO 05N96W TO 05N94W TO 06N92W TO 09N93W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2.5 TO 3.0 M. .24 HOUR FORECAST BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 09N101.5W 1009 MB. WITHIN 10N99W TO 11N100W TO 11N102W TO 10N103W TO 08N101W TO 09N100W TO 10N99W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. .48 HOUR FORECAST BROAD LOW PRES DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M. .WITHIN 00N112W TO 02S114W TO 01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03S115W TO 03S110W TO 00N112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 03N113W TO 00N127W TO 01S120W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S109W TO 03N113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 01S111W TO 01S116W TO 01N123W TO 00N128W TO 03.4S120W TO 03.4S107W TO 01S111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL. .REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M. CONVECTION VALID AT 0100 UTC SUN JUL 19... .TROPICAL STORM ELIDA...NUMEROUS MODERATE FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W...WITH ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 20.5N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. .TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM LOW PRES NEAR 10N74.5W TO 10N86W TO 08N98W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E NEAR 11N108.5W TO 15N116W...THEN RESUMES SSE OF ELIDA FROM 16N119W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 00N TO 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W...AND FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM SSE OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 119W AND 135W. .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI NORTH PACIFIC EQUATOR TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 180W SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC JUL 19 2026. 24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUL 20 2026. 48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC JUL 21 2026. .WARNINGS. .NONE. .SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST. .LOW NEAR 13N172W 1008 MB MOVING W SLOWLY. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 19N TO 16N BETWEEN 175W AND 169W. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITH 270 NM OF LOW. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 14N178W. WINDS EASED 20 KT OR LESS. .48 HOUR FORECAST LOW MOVED W OF AREA. .LOW NEAR 04N154W 1010 MB NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITH 180 NM OF LOW. .24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. .TROUGH 30N168W 25N171W NEARLY STATIONARY. ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 169W. .24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH DISSIPATED. .WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 19N TO 12N BETWEEN 158W AND 148W. .24 HOUR FORECAST WINDS EASED 20 KT OR LESS. .WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA. .SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 21N TO 14N BETWEEN 174W AND 165W...AND FROM 24N TO 11N BETWEEN 157W AND 144W. .24 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 19N TO 16N BETWEEN 178W AND 173W...AND FROM 19N TO 09N BETWEEN 162W AND 148W. .48 HOUR FORECAST SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M FROM 17N TO 09N BETWEEN 168W AND 154W. .SEAS 2.5 M OR LOWER OVER REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA. .MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N180E TO FIRST LOW NEAR 14N173W TO SECOND LOW NEAR 04N152W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 420 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH. .ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM 12N TO 07N BETWEEN 146W AND 161W. $$ .FORECASTER FOSTER. HONOLULU HI. AXNT20 KNHC 190525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will support strong to near-gale force easterly trade winds across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before becoming confined to south of 15N. Winds will pulse to gale force over the waters north of Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft, will develop during the times of peak winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. NE Gulf of America (Invest AL91): Recent satellite-wind data and nearby surface observations indicate that an area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America is slowly becoming better defined. However, its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. This activity may produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should exercise caution across this area. Regardless, gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, to Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been repositioned along 32W, south of 19N, based on recent satellite and scatterometer data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are present from 07N to 13N and between 55W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 15N30W and then to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 07N58W. A few showers are evident within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details a broad low pressure over the eastern Gulf that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, dry air dominates the remainder of the basin suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. A 1019 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf waters supports moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, broad low pressure has formed offshore of Tampa Bay, Florida near 84.5W, and will drift northward over the next few days, bringing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the NE Gulf and adjacent portions of Florida. Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form over the next few days before the system moves inland across the Florida Panhandle. Regardless of development, mariners should prepare for thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and higher seas. Away from this system, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. The 1027 mb subtropical ridge centered near 29N58W in the central Atlantic forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed over Panama and Costa Rica are also affecting the nearshore waters. Generally dry weather conditions are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure ridge oriented along 28N, and the Colombian low will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of 15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening this weekend in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the north- central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated showers north of 20N and between 36W and 52W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds off northern Hispaniola as shown in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Elsewhere in the central and western Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring south of 25N and west of 45W. The highest seas are occurring east of the Windward Islands. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and east of 22W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge extends along 28N tonight and will weaken and drift northward through early next week as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N through Tue, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings through Tue N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Expect increasing winds and seas N of 22N and E of 70W Tue through Wed as the trough approaches. $$ Delgado AXNT20 KNHC 190525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will support strong to near-gale force easterly trade winds across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before becoming confined to south of 15N. Winds will pulse to gale force over the waters north of Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft, will develop during the times of peak winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. NE Gulf of America (Invest AL91): Recent satellite-wind data and nearby surface observations indicate that an area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America is slowly becoming better defined. However, its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. This activity may produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should exercise caution across this area. Regardless, gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, to Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been repositioned along 32W, south of 19N, based on recent satellite and scatterometer data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are present from 07N to 13N and between 55W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 15N30W and then to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 07N58W. A few showers are evident within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details a broad low pressure over the eastern Gulf that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, dry air dominates the remainder of the basin suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. A 1019 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf waters supports moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, broad low pressure has formed offshore of Tampa Bay, Florida near 84.5W, and will drift northward over the next few days, bringing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the NE Gulf and adjacent portions of Florida. Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form over the next few days before the system moves inland across the Florida Panhandle. Regardless of development, mariners should prepare for thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and higher seas. Away from this system, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. The 1027 mb subtropical ridge centered near 29N58W in the central Atlantic forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed over Panama and Costa Rica are also affecting the nearshore waters. Generally dry weather conditions are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure ridge oriented along 28N, and the Colombian low will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of 15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening this weekend in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the north- central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated showers north of 20N and between 36W and 52W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds off northern Hispaniola as shown in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Elsewhere in the central and western Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring south of 25N and west of 45W. The highest seas are occurring east of the Windward Islands. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and east of 22W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge extends along 28N tonight and will weaken and drift northward through early next week as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N through Tue, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings through Tue N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Expect increasing winds and seas N of 22N and E of 70W Tue through Wed as the trough approaches. $$ Delgado SNVD17 KWNB 190500 RRK BBXX 52201 19051 99071 11714 46/// ///// 10292 90500= 46006 19051 99407 71374 46/// /0408 10168 30279 40282 90510 333 91210 555 11086 22092 50282 70506 80409 90508= 46005 19051 99461 71311 46/// /3608 10139 20123 30272 40275 90510 22200 00150 333 91210 555 11087 22093 50275 70508 83609 90504= 46059 19051 99381 71299 46/// /0106 10171 20149 30223 40226 90510 22200 00180 333 91208 555 11068 22072 50226 70501 80207 90505= 46002 19051 99426 71305 46/// /0109 1//// 30248 40251 90510 22200 00165 333 91211 555 11096 22102 50251 70510 80110 90505= 46089 19051 99459 71258 46/// /3508 1//// 30217 40220 90510 22200 00160 333 91209 555 11084 22089 50220 70502 83609 90501= SOVD83 KWNB 190500 RRX KKYY 19076 0500/ 741387 071032 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 11023 99999 44085= SNVD15 KWNB 190500 RRV BBXX 42012 19051 99301 70875 46/// /1303 10285 20252 30146 40149 90510 22200 00300 333 91204 555 11033 22034 50149 70501 81404 90509= 44088 19051 99366 70748 46/// ///// 10273 90500 22200 00263 10503 20503 70016= 42092 19051 99276 70970 46/// ///// 1//// 90500 22200 00294 10503 20503 70014= 41043 19051 99211 70649 46/// /0708 10282 20239 30169 40172 90510 22200 00286 333 91209 555 11086 22092 50171 70507 80709 90507= 41048 19051 99319 70697 46/// /2405 10283 20255 30194 40197 90510 22200 00281 333 91205 555 11049 22052 50197 70503 82305 90504= 42055 19051 99221 70941 46/// /1004 10288 20251 30164 40167 90510 22200 00299 333 91205 555 11048 22051 50167 70505 81005 90503= 42059 19051 99153 70676 46/// /0809 10282 20254 30143 40146 90510 22200 00283 333 91211 555 11095 22101 50146 70510 80810 90510= 44011 19051 99411 70665 46/// /1809 10223 20216 30067 40070 90510 22200 00208 333 91210 555 11093 22099 50070 70510 81809 90505= 41044 19051 99216 70586 46/// /0808 10280 20231 30181 40184 90510 22200 00285 333 91209 555 11082 22088 50184 70510 80808 90507= 41047 19051 99276 70715 46/// /1604 10293 20243 30194 40197 90510 22200 00304 333 91205 555 11045 22048 50197 70509 81505 90509= 41049 19051 99275 70623 46/// /1403 10286 20246 30211 40214 90510 22200 00303 333 91204 555 11035 22037 50214 70509 81504 90508= 42039 19051 99288 70860 46/// /0508 10284 20263 30138 40140 90510 333 91210 555 11090 22095 50140 70510 80509 90510= 42056 19051 99198 70850 46/// /1203 10291 20259 30153 40156 90510 22200 00300 333 91204 555 11037 22039 50156 70510 81304 90501= 44008 19051 99405 70693 46/// /2208 10227 20221 30049 40052 90510 22200 00210 333 91210 555 11091 22097 50049 70510 82209 90501= 41040 19051 99146 70530 46/// /0708 10271 20246 30144 40147 90510 22200 00275 333 91209 555 11086 22092 50147 70510 80609 90506= 42060 19051 99164 70632 46/// /0609 10282 20250 30148 40151 90510 22200 00286 333 91211 555 11099 22106 50150 70508 80710 90507= 42001 19051 99259 70896 46/// /3104 10297 20268 30158 40161 90510 22200 00302 333 91204 555 11038 22040 50161 70505 83104 90504= 42035 19051 99292 70944 46/// /1805 10292 20253 30164 40167 90510 22200 00304 333 91206 555 11051 22054 50167 70510 81805 90504= 42057 19051 99170 70816 46/// /0707 10286 20265 30148 40151 90510 333 91208 555 11075 22079 50151 70510 80707 90510= 42058 19051 99141 70759 46/// /0711 10286 20255 30114 40117 90510 22200 00285 333 91214 555 11125 22133 50116 70509 80813 90502= 41010 19051 99289 70785 46/// /1606 10292 20252 30170 40172 90510 22200 00296 333 91206 555 11061 22065 50172 70510 81606 90510= 41002 19051 99317 70750 46/// /2008 10291 20259 30170 40173 90510 22200 00296 333 91209 555 11082 22087 50173 70509 82108 90510= 41046 19051 99238 70683 46/// /1106 10289 20243 30183 40186 90510 22200 00293 333 91208 555 11069 22074 50186 70510 81107 90504= 42036 19051 99285 70845 46/// /1006 10272 20234 30138 40141 90510 22200 00300 333 91207 555 11061 22065 50141 70510 81106 90503= 41041 19051 99143 70461 46/// /0507 10263 20227 30144 40146 90510 22200 00270 333 91209 555 11077 22082 50145 70508 80508 90504= 42002 19051 99260 70938 46/// /1704 10290 20250 30167 40170 90510 22200 00304 333 91205 555 11038 22040 50170 70504 81704 90508= 41001 19051 99348 70724 46/// /2209 10276 20266 30141 40144 90510 22200 00272 333 91212 555 11102 22108 50143 70509 82310 90508= 44014 19051 99366 70748 46/// ///// 10276 20264 30100 90510 22200 00262=