FABZ23 SBGL 210136

SBRE GAMET VALID 210600/211200 SBGL - SBRE RECIFE FIR BLW FL100 SECN I SFC WIND: N OF S06 120/31KT SFC VIS: E OF W042 AND S OF S07 3000M BR SIG CLD: E OF W040 ISOL TCU 2500/ABV 10000FT AGL E OF W043 AND S OF S07 BKN 300/1500FT AGL SECN II PSYS: NIL WIND/T: 2000FT 140/24KT PS22 5000FT 120/21KT PS16 10000FT 050/06KT PS10 CLD: E OF W043 SCT SC 1500/4000FT AGL E OF W043 SCT CU 2000/5000FT AGL FZLVL: ABV 10000FT AGL MNM QNH: 1017HPA SEA: T25 HGT 2M VA: NIL=


FABZ23 SBGL 210136

SBBS GAMET VALID 210600/211200 SBGL - SBBS BRASILIA FIR BLW FL100 SECN I SFC VIS: S OF S21 3000M BR SIG CLD: E OF W044 BKN 600/1200FT AGL S OF S21 BKN 600/1200FT AGL S OF S21 ISOL TCU 2500/ABV 10000FT AGL SECN II PSYS: NIL WIND/T: 2000FT 020/12KT PS27 5000FT 340/28KT PS21 10000FT 310/33KT PS08 CLD: E OF W045 SCT SC 1200/5000FT AGL S OF S21 SCT CU 1700/5000FT AGL FZLVL: ABV 10000FT AGL MNM QNH: 1015HPA VA: NIL=


WTPQ30 RJTD 210000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 2625 DUJUAN (2625)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

  TY DUJUAN IS LOCATED AT 32.5N, 138.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT

  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND

  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS

  IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

  HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED

  THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE

  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND

  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN

  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE

  FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD

  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS

  DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY

  SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.

3.TRACK FORECAST

  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A

  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN

  GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE

  INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE

  TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER

  NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP

  MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE

  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED

  VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN

  UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW

  TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN

  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON

  A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

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