WTPZ32 KNHC 210841 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026 ...POLO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 103.8W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 103.8 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow eastward or southeastward motion is expected later today and tonight. However, a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo is expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi SOVD83 KWNB 210800 RRX KKYY 21096 0830/ 726001 080096 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 09012 99999 41122= KKYY 21096 0830/ 736257 075593 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 15022 99999 44100= KKYY 21096 0830/ 739770 073766 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 19048 99999 44091= KKYY 21096 0830/ 733336 117659 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 14010 99999 46277= KKYY 21096 0830/ 736200 075714 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 13012 99999 44056= KKYY 21096 0830/ 736001 075421 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 12017 99999 44086= KKYY 21096 0830/ 736759 121950 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 05009 99999 46236= KKYY 21096 0830/ 721297 157959 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 31009 99999 51211= KKYY 21096 0830/ 759598 151828 88870 83099 2//// 3//// 66292 20001 29009 99999 46108= KKYY 21096 0830/ 734144 077715 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 04005 99999 41110= KKYY 21096 0830/ 728988 089649 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 00020 99999 42084= SOVD83 KWNB 210800 RRX KKYY 21096 0800/ 728988 089649 88870 82099 2//// 3//// 66492 20001 36024 99999 42084= WDPN31 PGTW 210900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 33.7N 139.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 96 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DUJUAN) UNDERGOING A PRONOUNCED RECONSOLIDATION PHASE, CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY OBSCURED BY A ROBUST CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). THIS BRIEF STRENGTHENING TIMEFRAME IS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, SUPPORTED BY CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 C, AND INCREASING BUT STILL LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ABLE TO TRANSIENTLY COCOON ITSELF FROM THE SURROUNDING DRY-AIR ADVECTION ENTRAINING INTO THE INNER VORTEX CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FUSION OF RADAR IMAGERY AND A 210556Z F18 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY OBSERVED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION, INCREASED DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES, AND THE AUTOMATED OBJECTIVE AIDS LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND A 210051Z METOP-C ASCAT CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 210422Z CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 210530Z CIMSS AIDT: 54 KTS AT 210530Z CIMSS D-MINT: 71 KTS AT 210422Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 82 KTS AT 210630Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY DUJUAN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION VECTOR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PREDICTION TIMEFRAME, COMMITTED TO THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA) TO YOKOSUKA, JAPAN IS ESTIMATED AT 81 NM AND EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, MODEST DEEPENING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS PROJECTED UNDER A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMIC AND SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS TRANSIENT STRENGTHENING PHASE IS SUPPORTED BY TY 24W BRIEFLY SHIELDING ITSELF FROM HOSTILE DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT WHILST TAPPING INTO VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SUBSEQUENT TO CPA PASSAGE AT YOKOSUKA, THE VORTEX IS FORECAST TO TRACK DIRECTLY ACROSS THE THERMALLY CONDUCIVE TAIL END OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT (28-29 C) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. HOWEVER, THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL INITIATE AS THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS DEGRADE OVER RAPIDLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH RELENTLESS DRY AIR ADVECTION AND DESTRUCTIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REACHING 40+ KTS BY TAU 36. UPON INTERACTING WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC REGIME AND THE UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TY DUJUAN WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME. MODEL DISCUSSION: HIGH CONFIDENCE ANCHORS THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS IN LIGHT OF EXCELLENT NUMERICAL MODEL AGREEMENT. ALL MAJOR PREDICTION TRACKERS RESOLVE AN EXTREMELY TIGHT (5 NM) CROSS-TRACK DISPERSION ENVELOPE AT THE CPA TO YOKOSUKA. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 150 NM BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ITS ETT. REGARDING INTENSITY OUTLOOKS, HAFS AND COAMPS-TC CONTRAST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SCENARIOS PROGNOSTICATING MONOTONIC CYCLOLYSIS BY DEPICTING A MINOR RE- DEEPENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TOWARD A PEAK WIND SPEED PREDICTION OF 75-80 KTS. AFTER THAT, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE PROJECTS RAPID WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE HOSTILE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CONVERGES NARROWLY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN SNVD17 KWNB 210800 RRE BBXX 46285 21081 99334 71177 46/// ///// 1//// 90826 22200 00230 11701 21001 322// 41701 70007= SNVD15 KWNB 210800 RRM BBXX 42084 21081 99290 70896 46/// ///// 10287 90830 22200 00292 10501 20501 70003= 42084 21081 99290 70896 46/// ///// 10285 90800 22200 00292 10601 20601 70003= FOPZ12 KNHC 210842 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 30(47) 1(48) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 27(70) 1(71) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20(37) X(37) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 39(53) 2(55) X(55) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 22(38) 2(40) X(40) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) 1(11) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 42(54) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI WWCN15 CWUL 210841 YELLOW WARNING - WIND FOR NUNAVIK ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:41 A.M. EDT MONDAY 21 SEPTEMBER 2026. --------------------------------------------------------------------- YELLOW LEVEL WARNING - WIND - FOR: =NEW= SALLUIT. --------------------------------------------------------------------- IMPACT LEVEL: MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ==DISCUSSION== SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 90 KILOMETRES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, SEND AN EMAIL TO QCSTORM(AT)EC.GC.CA OR POST REPORTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA USING (HASH)QCSTORM. HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA END/QSPC