WTPZ54 KNHC 242034 TDSEP4 Tormenta Tropical Iselle Discusión Especial Número 6 Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL EP092026 200 PM PDT Lunes 24 de agosto de 2026 La configuración de las nubes de Iselle sigue mejorando gradualmente, según las imágenes de satélite geoestacionarias, a pesar de la moderada cizalladura en el entorno hacia el oeste y el noroeste. El ciclón contiene un núcleo de convección profunda, con una impresionante banda curva a continuación que se extiende hacia el sur en el lado este de Iselle. Algunos pasos superiores de satélite de microondas recientes muestran una estructura similar. La última clasificación subjetiva de Dvorak de TAFB es T3.5/55 kt, y las estimaciones objetivas de la intensidad de los nudos por satélite oscilan entre 55 y 59 kt. En función de la mejora de la estructura, la intensidad inicial de esta advertencia se aumentará a 60 kt. La estimación inicial de movimiento no ha cambiado respecto a la advertencia anterior, hacia el noroeste, o 310/11 kt. Se prevé que una cresta de nivel medio al norte de Iselle se fortalezca, lo que provocará que Iselle gire hacia el oeste-noroeste el martes, movimiento que debería continuar hasta el final de la semana. La última predicción de la trayectoria meteorológica del CNH es bastante similar a la anterior y se sitúa muy cerca del Consenso Corregido de HFIP (HCCA) y del Conjunto Médico de Google DeepMind (GDMI). Iselle permanece sobre aguas cálidas y en un entorno húmedo. Sin embargo, el ciclón está experimentando una cizalladura vertical moderada en dirección oeste-noroeste. Las temperaturas y la humedad del agua seguirán siendo bastante favorables durante otras 12 a 24 horas, pero se prevé que la cizalladura aumente ligeramente hasta las 20 kt en las 12 horas. Dada la reciente mejora de la estructura, el pronóstico del CNH sigue previendo que el sistema se fortalezca hasta convertirse en huracán en las próximas 12 horas. La previsión de intensidad del CNH se sitúa en el extremo superior de la gama de guías para las primeras 36 horas de la previsión. Después de las 24 horas, la disminución gradual de las temperaturas y la humedad de los océanos, que darán lugar a un debilitamiento constante, y la predicción de intensidad del CNH se sitúa en el centro del intervalo de orientación a partir de la hora 48     . Las últimas imágenes simuladas por satélite del ECMWF y del GFS sugieren que Iselle podría convertirse en un remanente a partir del jueves. El momento en que Iselle se convierte en un ciclón postropical se ha adelantado a las 72 horas. Después de eso, los modelos indican que el resto de la zona pobre se convertirá en una depresión entre el cuarto y quinto día. POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS INIT 24/2100Z 19.2N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 20.1N 119.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 20.9N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 21.4N 123.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 21.9N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 22.4N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z 23.5N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISIPADO $$ Pronosticador Hagen *** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es siempre la versión autorizada. *** WDPN32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (NARRA) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.5N 107.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 136 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (NARRA) WITH A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTS TS 18W MAKING AN EASTWARD TURN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEMS RAIN BANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED TO BE MARGINAL WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTHEAST BEING OFFSET ONLY MARGINALLY BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VISIBLE DETERIORATION OF THE SYSTEM AND OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN ALL AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON 241302 METOP-B ASCAT DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND TO A LESSER DEGREE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 241740Z CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 241740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 38 KTS AT 241305Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 241710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 18W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE NER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD A NORTHWARD EXTENSION IMMINENTLY, CAUSING 18W TO TURN POLEWARD BY TAU 12 AND SKIRT ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA, MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 OVER THE PENINSULA. REGARDING INTENSITY, TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 12 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH VWS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30 KTS BY TAU 36 AND INTRODUCE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE SYSTEM. LANDFALL AND SUBSEQUENT TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL FURTHER HASTEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE VORTEX WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM AT TAU 48. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS EXCLUDING NAVGEM AND JGSM AS OUTLIERS TO THE WEST. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ONLY OUTLIER OF GFS DEPICTING A TEMPORARY SPIKE IN INTENSITY AT TAU 12, BUT AGREEING ON A SHARP WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN WDPN31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 25.6N 132.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 248 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SAUDEL) AS HAVING DEVELOPED A DISTINCT DRY SLOT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE EYEWALL, WHICH HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED IT, ALONG WITH DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WESTERN QUADRANT CAUSED BY THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. THE EYE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED AND HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY FILLED WITH CLOUDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), SLIGHT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 241302Z ASCAT DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 101 KTS AT 241830Z CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 241830Z CIMSS AIDT: 92 KTS AT 241830Z CIMSS D-MINT: 96 KTS AT 241712Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 92 KTS AT 241830Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 17W (SAUREL) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAPAN. 17W IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE RYUKU ISLANDS JUST BEFORE TAU 24. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 24, 17W WILL ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE STR, CAUSING IT TO SLOW ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE IN THE EAST CHINA SEA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A STR CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING AUTHORITY OVER SAUDEL, INDUCING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 120. LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 72-96, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST NO LATER THAN TAU 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 17W IS ASSESSED TO BE IN ITS TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 72 AND RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND FORECAST FROM TAU 96-120. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH VWS REMAINING BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST FORCING ITS WAY INTO THE CORE. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS REDUCING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED SUPPORT IS FILLING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORSENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONTRIBUTING TO THE GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BEFORE TAU 120 AS THE RUGGED TERRAIN SHREDS THE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FROM TAU 0-72. FOLLOWING TAU 72, TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS LAND INTERACTION BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE STORM. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FROM TAU 72-120 IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ONLY A 10 KT SPREAD BETWEEN MEMBERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72. AFTER TAU 72, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS MODELS DISAGREE OVER THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING OVER LAND. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN 0000399900 00001 WUCN10 CWUL 242033 YELLOW WARNING - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR QUEBEC ENDED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:33 P.M. EDT MONDAY 24 AUGUST 2026. --------------------------------------------------------------------- YELLOW LEVEL WARNING - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM - ENDED FOR: BECANCOUR - VILLEROY AREA SAINTE-ANNE-DE-LA-PERADE AREA PORTNEUF AREA LOTBINIERE AREA. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ALERT HAVE WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA END/QSPC SOVD83 KWNB 242000 RRX KKYY 24086 2018/ 737201 076266 88871 83099 20001 32898 42152 99999 44072= KKYY 24086 2018/ 738963 076448 88871 83099 20001 32724 41227 99999 44063= KKYY 24086 2018/ 738556 076415 88871 83099 20001 32848 41540 99999 44062= KKYY 24086 2018/ 737552 076251 88871 83099 20001 32921 41919 99999 44058= KKYY 24086 2018/ 738033 076336 88871 83099 20001 32814 41688 99999 44042= WFUS52 KMHX 242034 TORMHX NCC031-242100- /O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0005.260824T2034Z-260824T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 434 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Carteret County in eastern North Carolina... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 434 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Atlantic, or near Cedar Island, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Carteret County. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3491 7640 3497 7640 3502 7624 3489 7622 TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 267DEG 13KT 3493 7636 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ RJ