WTPZ12 KNHC 282338 TASEP2 BOLETÍN Huracán Polo Advertencia Intermedia Número 33A Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL EP172026 500 PM MST lunes 28 de septiembre de 2026 ...POLO CERCA DE TOCAR TIERRA EN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...VIENTOS QUE AMENAZAN LA VIDA E INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS EN CURSO... RESUMEN DE 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMACIÓN ------------- UBICACIÓN...25.5N 112.8W ALREDEDOR DE 60 MI...95 KM NNO DE CABO SAN LAZARO MÉXICO ALREDEDOR DE 130 MI...205 KM SSW DE SANTA ROSALIA MÉXICO VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH...185 KM/H MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NE O 40 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...963 MB...28.44 PULGADAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS ------------- CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA: Ninguno. RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO: Un Aviso de Huracán está en efecto para... * Costa oeste de Baja California Sur, desde Punta Abreojos a Santa Fe * Costa este de Baja California Sur, desde Loreto a Bahia San Juan Bautista * México continental desde Bahia Kino a Huatabampito Una Vigilancia de Huracán está en efecto para... * Costa oeste de Baja California Sur, al norte de Punta Abreojos a Punta Eugenia * Costa este de Baja California Sur, al sur de Loreto a San Evaristo * México continental al sur de Huatabampito a Topolobampo Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para... * Costa oeste de Baja California Sur, al norte de Punta Abreojos a Punta Eugenia. * Costa este de Baja California Sur, al sur de Loreto a San Evaristo. * México continental al sur de Huatabampito a Topolobampo Un Aviso de Huracán significa que se esperan condiciones de huracán en algún lugar dentro del área bajo aviso, en este caso a última hora de la tarde hasta el martes. Los preparativos para proteger la vida y la propiedad deben completarse o apresurarse en breve. Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que son posibles las condiciones de huracán dentro del área de vigilancia, en este caso dentro de las próximas 12 horas. Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área bajo aviso, en este caso dentro de las próximas 12 horas. Intereses en el resto de Baja California Sur, y el resto de Sonora y el norte de Sinaloa deben monitorear el progreso de Polo. Para información de la tormenta específica en su área, por favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico nacional. DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS ------------- A las 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), el centro del Huracán Polo se localizó cerca de la latitud 25.5 Norte, longitud 112.8 oeste. Polo se está moviendo hacia el noreste cerca de 12 mph (19 km/h), y este movimiento con una aceleración gradual se anticipa hasta el martes. En la trayectoria del pronóstico, se espera que el centro de Polo toque tierra a lo largo de la costa de Baja California Sur esta noche, luego se mueva hacia el interior sobre el sur de Sonora el martes por la mañana. Los vientos máximos sostenidos permanecen cerca de 115 mph (185 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Polo es un huracán de categoría 3 en la Escala de Vientos de Huracán Saffir-Simpson. Se espera poco cambio en la fuerza antes de que Polo toque tierra en Baja California Sur. También se espera que Polo se convierta en un huracán cuando toque tierra por segunda vez en México continental. Se pronostica un rápido debilitamiento el martes cuando Polo se mueva hacia el interior sobre México continental. Vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hacia fuera hasta 40 millas (65 km) desde el centro y vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia fuera hasta 105 millas (165 km). La presión central mínima estimada es de 963 mb (28.44 pulgadas). PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ------------- Los mensajes clave para Polo se pueden encontrar en el Ciclón Tropical Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDEP2 y el encabezado de la OMM WTPZ42 KNHC. VIENTO: Las condiciones de huracán se propagarán por Baja California Sur dentro del área de aviso durante las próximas horas, y estas condiciones son posibles en el área de vigilancia más tarde esta noche. En México continental, se esperan condiciones de huracán en el área de aviso y posibles en el área de vigilancia temprano el martes por la mañana. Una Advertencia de Viento está en efecto para porciones del sur de Nuevo México y el extremo oeste de Texas, donde son posibles fuertes ráfagas de viento el martes y el martes por la noche en asociación con los remanentes de Polo. Consulte los productos emitidos por su Oficina de Pronóstico del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local para información adicional. LLUVIA: Se espera que Polo produzca totales de lluvia de 6 a 12 pulgadas en porciones de Baja California Sur. Se anticipan totales de lluvia de 4 a 6 pulgadas con totales máximos de 8 pulgadas en las porciones sur y centro de Sonora.Esta lluvia puede producir inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra que amenazan la vida, especialmente en áreas de terreno empinado. Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia asociada con Polo, por favor vea el Gráfico de Lluvia Total de Tormentas del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología disponible en hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf MAREJADA: Se espera que una marejada ciclónica produzca inundaciones costeras significativas en áreas de vientos en tierra. Cerca de la costa, la marejada estará acompañada por olas grandes y destructivas. OLEAJE: Las marejadas generadas por Polo afectarán porciones de la costa de la península de Baja California y el noroeste de México durante el próximo día o dos.Estas marejadas son propensas a causar oleaje, corrientes marinas e inundaciones costeras que amenazan la vida. Por favor, consulte los productos de su oficina meteorológica local. PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA ------------- Próxima advertencia completa a las 800 $$ Pronosticador Cangialosi *** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es siempre la versión autorizada. *** AXNT20 KNHC 282338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 26.6N 45.3W at 28/2100 UTC or 1150 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 10 ft are within 90 nm in the NW semicircle from the center. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. A general SW to WSW motion is anticipated over the next several days. Little change in strength is expected through Tue, with weakening expected thereafter. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 74W, south of 16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no convection over the central basin associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 22W and 36W. Similar convection is depicted from 06N to 13N between 43W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Abundant low level moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from the Yucatan is converging over the SE Gulf, under favorable upper level conditions is producing numerous moderate isolated strong convection S of 265N between 83W and 91W southward to 21N. A weak stationary front is depicted over the coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, Florida. Light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate. For the forecast, the weak stationary front over the north- central Gulf will dissipate through early Tue. High pressure north of the front is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western Gulf by Tue night, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the front approaches the northwest Gulf Fri and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer troughing is leading to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection W of 78W. Mainly gentle trades dominate due to a weak pressure gradient, but fresh E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Colombia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and central portions and 3 to 4 ft, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a trough over the Bahamas and southeast Gulf has displaced the usual subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas across the basin. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas across the basin by mid week as the high pressure builds north of the area, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Fay. A surface trough extends from 31N67W through the central Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Numerous thunderstorms continue along this feature, expanding southward to 23N, W of 64W. Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To the E of it, moderate S to SW winds are noted to 61W. T.D. Fay is centered near 27.1N 44.6W, and is sandwiched in between to high centers at 26N39W and 29N53W. This pattern is leading to mainly gentle NE to E winds S of 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N25W, and is still producing moderate cyclonic winds and 5 to 7 ft seas to the N and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate seas dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist along a trough reaching from 31N67W to the central Bahamas and Florida Straits. The trough will dissipate through Tue, allowing high pressure to build over the western Atlantic. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek. $$ Konarik AXNT20 KNHC 282339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 26.6N 45.3W at 28/2100 UTC or 1150 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 10 ft are within 90 nm in the NW semicircle from the center. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. A general SW to WSW motion is anticipated over the next several days. Little change in strength is expected through Tue, with weakening expected thereafter. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 74W, south of 16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no convection over the central basin associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 22W and 36W. Similar convection is depicted from 06N to 13N between 43W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Abundant low level moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from the Yucatan is converging over the SE Gulf, under favorable upper level conditions is producing numerous moderate isolated strong convection S of 265N between 83W and 91W southward to 21N. A weak stationary front is depicted over the coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, Florida. Light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate. For the forecast, the weak stationary front over the north- central Gulf will dissipate through early Tue. High pressure north of the front is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western Gulf by Tue night, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the front approaches the northwest Gulf Fri and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer troughing is leading to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection W of 78W. Mainly gentle trades dominate due to a weak pressure gradient, but fresh E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Colombia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and central portions and 3 to 4 ft, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a trough over the Bahamas and southeast Gulf has displaced the usual subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas across the basin. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas across the basin by mid week as the high pressure builds north of the area, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Fay. A surface trough extends from 31N67W through the central Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Numerous thunderstorms continue along this feature, expanding southward to 23N, W of 64W. Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To the E of it, moderate S to SW winds are noted to 61W. T.D. Fay is centered near 27.1N 44.6W, and is sandwiched in between to high centers at 26N39W and 29N53W. This pattern is leading to mainly gentle NE to E winds S of 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N25W, and is still producing moderate cyclonic winds and 5 to 7 ft seas to the N and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate seas dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist along a trough reaching from 31N67W to the central Bahamas and Florida Straits. The trough will dissipate through Tue, allowing high pressure to build over the western Atlantic. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek. $$ Konarik SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2320/ 736802 121791 88872 83099 20000 31459 43279 99999 MLSC1= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2320/ 741982 086619 88870 83099 20001 31577 20003 31579 20005 31521 20007 31387 20009 31337 20011 31235 20013 31146 20015 31115 20017 30988 66292 20001 01019 20003 02020 20004 04021 20005 05021 20006 05023 20007 04017 20008 03015 20009 02015 20010 03016 20011 02016 20012 02015 20013 04017 20014 02013 20015 00015 20016 01013 20017 01012 20018 01012 99999 45026= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2300/ 735371 120859 88872 83099 20000 31801 43338 99999 MBXC1= SOVD83 KWNB 282200 RRX KKYY 28096 2250/ 735371 120859 88872 83099 20000 31792 43337 99999 MBXC1= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2310/ 735371 120859 88872 83099 20000 31809 43338 99999 MBXC1= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2330/ 740699 073087 88871 83099 20001 31630 42635 99999 44069= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2330/ 736802 121791 88872 83099 20000 31460 43279 99999 MLSC1= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2315/ 740699 073087 88871 83099 20001 31629 42632 99999 44069= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2320/ 742900 086272 88870 83099 20001 31132 20003 31135 20005 31102 20007 31026 20009 30946 20011 30895 20013 30809 20015 30728 20017 30719 20019 30713 20021 30709 20023 30701 20025 30704 20027 30701 99999 45029= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2330/ 741704 083264 88870 83099 2//// 3//// 66292 20001 12003 20002 15023 20003 15002 20004 15003 20005 15008 20006 13004 99999 45165= SOVD83 KWNB 282300 RRX KKYY 28096 2320/ 742397 086331 88870 83099 20001 31242 20003 31145 20005 30913 20007 30899 20009 30844 20011 30837 20013 30843 20015 30819 20017 30846 99999 45168= KKYY 28096 2320/ 741755 086968 88870 83099 20001 31671 20002 31639 20003 31626 20005 31630 20006 31624 20007 31611 20008 31608 20009 31597 20010 31570 20011 31550 20012 31522 20013 31302 20014 31278 20016 31282 20017 31276 99999 45170= KKYY 28096 2320/ 742135 087655 88870 83099 20001 31825 20003 31770 20005 31824 20007 31816 20009 31788 99999 45174=