ACUS01 KWNS 011957

SWODY1

SPC AC 011956



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0256 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026



Valid 012000Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat

are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this

afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be

possible in parts of New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and far West

Texas.



...20Z Update...

The MRGL Risk/5-percent wind probabilities were expanded westward

into parts of central MS, where a very warm and moist PBL (upper 70s

dewpoints) are contributing to moderate-strong surface-based

buoyancy. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve along/ahead of the

approaching cold front will pose a risk of locally damaging wind

gusts later this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, the forecast

remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made.



..Weinman.. 08/01/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026/



..OH and TN Valleys...

Recent satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave trough

moving through the Mid MS Valley. Surface analysis shows an occluded

surface low over central IL beneath the shortwave. Expectation is

for this cyclone to drift slowly east-southeastward throughout the

day, with the surface low gradually filling. As this low fills, the

triple point low, currently near the IL/IN/KY border intersection,

will become more prominent through the afternoon before it too

occludes.



Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from eastern

IN/western OH through eastern TN into AL, along the eastern

periphery of an arcing warm conveyor. These showers and

thunderstorms should continue northeastward/eastward as the entire

system drifts east-southeastward, with some modest moisture

advection anticipated throughout the warm sector. This should allow

the warm sector to at least moderately destabilize, but persistent

cloudiness will limit heating, likely tempering the overall

buoyancy. Expectation is for more modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE

around 500 to 1000 J/kg) across IN and OH, with greater buoyancy

(i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) farther south across central KY and

Middle TN. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead

of the cold front as it moves through this destabilized and buoyant

airmass.



Moderate mid-level flow throughout the base of the Mid MS Valley

shortwave trough will spread eastward across KY and TN, supporting

effective shear around 30 to 35 kt across KY. Reduced vertical shear

is expected farther north across the OH Valley (due to weaker

mid-level flow) and farther south across TN Valley (due to more

westerly low-level flow). Given these kinematic conditions, a

predominantly multicellular mode is favored, although a few

supercells appear possible from southeast IN/southwest OH through

central KY. Damaging wind gusts will be the most prominent hazard,

but a tornado or two is also possible, particularly within the

corridor from far southeast IN through far north-central KY and far

southwest OH. Here, some modestly increased low-level shear is

possible near the triple point low as it moves through.



...Eastern AZ through NM into west TX...

Moderate mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm

development across the higher terrain from western AZ through

central/northeast NM. Relatively strong northerly winds aloft will

aid storm organization/clustering as storms spread

south-southeastward into the deeply mixed boundary-layer across the

lower elevations. Outflow-dominant storm structures will result in

strong cold pools capable of isolated strong to severe wind gusts.

Resulting forward-propagating lines could reach as far

south/southeast as Far West TX by later this evening.



$$