ACUS01 KWNS 072000

SWODY1

SPC AC 071959



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0259 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026



Valid 072000Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...



...SUMMARY...

Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are

expected over portions of North Dakota as well as southeast South

Dakota into northeast Nebraska this afternoon into evening. Isolated

damaging wind potential will exist over the northern and central

Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind

gusts remain possible this afternoon over the central Gulf Coast

states.



...20Z Update...

The MRGL Risk/5-percent wind area was expanded slightly

west-southwestward in parts of eastern MT. Here, a small

north/south-oriented line segment is tracking eastward into an

increasingly warm PBL. This activity will continue to pose a risk of

a few severe wind gusts this afternoon. See MCD #2264 for more

details. Elsewhere, very minimal changes were made with this update.



..Weinman.. 09/07/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026/



...ND...

A fast-moving shortwave trough currently over WY/MT will track

northeastward into the Dakotas this afternoon.  Strong

heating/mixing in southwest ND will lead to a sharpening dryline

across central ND by mid/late afternoon.  This will be the likely

focus for thunderstorm development after 22z.  Forecast soundings in

the warm-sector east of the dryline suggest sufficient low-level and

deep-layer shear for supercell storm-modes. Large hail and perhaps a

tornado or two are possible in the most intense storms. This

activity will spread eastward into northeast ND this evening before

weakening.



...CO/KS/NE/SD...

A weak surface boundary is present today from northeast CO into

central NE.  Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form over the

mountains of central CO, with development spreading eastward along

the boundary through the afternoon.  Strong heating and a deeply

mixed boundary-layer will promote intense downdrafts in the

strongest cores.  By early evening, activity may spread into

southeast SD where greater low-level moisture and CAPE will pose a

risk of a few more intense storms capable of hail or even a tornado.

 Recent model solutions have been backing off on this SD scenario,

but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.



...LA/MS/AL...

Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the central Gulf coast

region today, with full sunshine and dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. 

Steering flow is weak, but high CAPE and ample moisture suggest a

risk of occasional intense downdrafts in the strongest storms.



$$