ACUS01 KWNS 092002 SWODY1 SPC AC 092000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Arizona. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with this update. Most noteworthy, the MRGL/SLGT risks in the Mid-South were expanded slightly southward. A gradually strengthening low-level jet should support the maintenance of ongoing thunderstorm clusters and potentially new development into this evening/tonight. Given strong buoyancy and increasing low-level flow, damaging winds will be possible. ..Weinman.. 07/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026/ ...Mid Atlantic... Hot and humid condition are present once again today over parts of the Mid Atlantic region, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures rising through the 80s. A weak shortwave trough passing across the central Appalachians will aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern WV/western VA southern PA, with storms tracking eastward through early evening. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and moderate CAPE values will result in scattered damaging winds over this area. Cloud cover in southeast PA/NY/DE lends some uncertainty to severe threat that far east, but storms are not expected to arrive in that area for several hours, allowing time for the clouds to erode somewhat. ...Central High Plains... Similar to yesterday, scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains/foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward through the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings suggest parameters favorable of locally damaging wind gusts with this activity, with an increasing risk as storms build eastward into greater low-level moisture. Several 12z CAMS suggest a linear MCS maintaining strong intensity into the night into western KS, with a continuing risk of damaging winds. ...ND/SD... A convectively aided shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND/southern Manitoba. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify by late afternoon ahead of this feature from eastern ND into western SD. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and ample CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for supercells. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ...MO/IL/KY/IN... The remnants of an overnight MCS over MO will continue tracking eastward today into a very moist and moderately unstable air mass over parts of IL/IN/KY. This feature is weakening with time, but some mesoscale organization persists with a weak MCV noted over east-central MO. This may be sufficient to promote re-development of storms later today. If this occurs, the strongest cells could pose a damaging wind threat. Low-level warm advection on the western flank of this system will result in the development of thunderstorms over western/central MO by late afternoon or early evening. Forecast soundings in this corridor show CAPE and shear profiles that would be favorable for supercell structures capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. $$