ACUS01 KWNS 110031

SWODY1

SPC AC 110030



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0730 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026



Valid 110100Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING

INTO TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging

wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this evening across parts

of central Texas.



...Central Texas to the Texas Coast and deep South Texas...



As of 00:15z, volumetric radar data indicated an HP supercell

gradually evolving into a larger-scale bowing complex over

McCulloch, San Saba, and Mason counties with a separate supercell

complex over Coryell county, which recently produced hail up to four

inches in diameter. Surface observations and objective analysis

indicate the presence of a warm and moist inflow air mass with

estimated MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear isn't

particularly strong, the observed supercell structures indicate

sufficient shear exists to support organized storm modes given the

degree of instability.



Current thinking is that the separate thunderstorm regimes mentioned

above will eventually merge along a common cold pool, with a

broader-scale MCS accelerating south-southeast through the remainder

of central TX this evening. Corridors of damaging winds in excess of

75 mph appear likely within the core of the bowing complex. The very

large hail (> 2") threat is expected to persist for the next hour or

two with the dominant supercell structures. Hail sizes should

diminish with time as convection transitions to more of an outflow

dominant system.



The wind damage threat is expected to become more isolated late

tonight as the convective system approaches the TX Coast and deep

South Texas owing to gradual cooling and stabilization of the

boundary layer.



..Mead.. 05/11/2026



$$