ACUS01 KWNS 301622

SWODY1

SPC AC 301620



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026



Valid 301630Z - 311200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over

the central Great Plains.  The stronger thunderstorms will

potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of

tornadoes.



...Central KS into OK...

A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across

the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level

jet moving into the region.  Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds

in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a

zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of

central KS and northern OK.  This region will be most favorable for

severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being

the primary concern.



Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from

southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border.  Temperatures

approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,

promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that

favor supercell structures.  As this activity spreads northeastward

through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will

remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be

possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode.  Activity

should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable

environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.



...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...

Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned

surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the

northern foothills of CO.  Widely scattered thunderstorms are

expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and

near the dryline over northwest KS.  All of this activity will build

northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of

supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and

perhaps a tornado or two.  These storms may remain at least

occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.



..Hart/Weinman.. 05/30/2026



$$