ACUS11 KWNS 012329

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 012329 

TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-020200-



Mesoscale Discussion 2424

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0529 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026



Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the western

Oklahoma Panhandle



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 



Valid 012329Z - 020200Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...An increasing risk for QLCS circulations and perhaps

leading supercell tornadoes is expected early to mid evening. Severe

wind gusts will also be possible as well. A watch is likely this

evening with a tornado watch being possible.



DISCUSSION...A linear band of low-topped convection continues

eastward in the vicinity of Albuquerque. Strong mid-level ascent

will continue to spread eastward this evening as a potent mid-level

shortwave trough moves east. Lightning activity continues to

increase with this linear band. With time, this convection will

encounter upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints east of the terrain. This

will occur coincident with a marked increase in 700 mb flow across

the Southwest/southern High Plains regions. The expectation is for

there to be an increase in QLCS circulation and perhaps leading

supercell potential by around 03Z. Given the strong wind fields,

even modest convection will be capable of severe wind gusts. A watch

is likely this evening for parts of eastern New Mexico into the

Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Some consideration for a tornado

watch will be given.



..Wendt/Guyer.. 11/01/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...



LAT...LON   33090449 33140492 33700511 34560496 35820448 36450424

            36930272 36420209 35110204 34140279 33740317 33090449 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN