ACUS11 KWNS 022038

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 022038 

TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-022245-



Mesoscale Discussion 1444

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0338 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026



Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...



Valid 022038Z - 022245Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438

continues.



SUMMARY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438 continues until 8 PM CDT.

Storms in the watch area will be capable of damaging wind gusts of

55-70 MPH.



DISCUSSION...As expected given the lack of upper-level flow,

thunderstorms across Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama have been

largely disorganized. However, given steep lapse rates, modest

precipitable water content, and tall mixed-layer LCL heights near 2

km, wet microburst activity is possible with the strongest downdraft

cores. These microbursts could be capable of damaging winds of 55-70

MPH. Since there is little in the way of convective organization,

the expectation is that convective activity will diminish after

sunset with the reduction in surface heating.



..Halbert.. 07/02/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...



LAT...LON   36718890 36748797 36768688 36698641 36428619 35808599

            35198578 34668561 34398552 34248570 34198624 34188675

            34148717 34198762 34268801 34498828 35188851 35918868

            36488888 36718890 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN