ACUS11 KWNS 100413

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 100412 

KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-100545-



Mesoscale Discussion 1570

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026



Areas affected...Parts of southeast MO into extreme southern

IL/southwest KY



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...



Valid 100412Z - 100545Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477

continues.



SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may continue into the early

morning hours.



DISCUSSION...Earlier convection has generally become disorganized

across southeast MO, though some uptick in storm intensity has been

noted near the southern and eastern periphery of the ongoing

cluster. Rich low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and a modest

increase in low-level flow (noted on the KSGF and KPAH VWPs) will

continue to support deep convection into the early overnight hours

across the region. However, marginal deep-layer shear and the

complex/messy storm mode may temper the organized severe threat with

time. Until a more definitive weakening trend occurs, localized wind

damage and perhaps marginal hail will remain possible. Additional

watch issuance is not currently anticipated, though local extension

of WW 477 may be considered, if a notable uptick in storm

organization occurs prior to the 05 UTC expiration time.



..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...



LAT...LON   37929193 38049040 37918966 37378885 36928877 36628897

            36618944 36639011 36659074 36789131 36959163 37339206

            37929193 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN