ACUS11 KWNS 111605

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 111604 

NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-111730-



Mesoscale Discussion 2361

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1104 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026



Areas affected...portions of central into northern North Carolina



Concerning...Tornado Watch 680...



Valid 111604Z - 111730Z



The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 680 continues.



SUMMARY...A few tornadoes remain a concern over the next few hours.

The best chance for tornadoes will be ahead of a surface low over

central to northern NC.



DISCUSSION...A band of organized thunderstorms are beginning to show

slightly greater supercell characteristics as it advances eastward

toward an instability axis, where favorable low-level shear is also

present. Surface temperatures are warming into the upper 70s F, amid

mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per 15Z

mesoanalysis. Furthermore, the RAX VAD depicts an appreciable curved

low-level hodograph, with over 250 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, with nearly 150

m2/s2 contained in the lowest 500 m AGL. As such, a

high-shear/moderate CAPE environment is present to support a

continued isolated tornado threat. While a tornado is possible with

any storm along the primary confluence band, the best chance for a

tornado will be with the northern storms given their proximity to

the surface low, and locally backed winds.



..Squitieri.. 10/11/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...



LAT...LON   33567809 33677858 33887877 34337895 35457913 35807911

            36437876 36447866 36597821 36627763 36437735 35847732

            35027752 34367772 33857792 33567809 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH