ACUS11 KWNS 111937

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 111937 

NCZ000-VAZ000-112200-



Mesoscale Discussion 2281

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0237 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026



Areas affected...Parts of southern Virginia and northern North

Carolina



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 111937Z - 112200Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms could pose a risk of locally damaging

wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.



DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis and visible satellite

imagery indicate a stationary boundary extending from far

northeastern NC into south-central VA. Here, continued diurnal

heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) is

yielding moderate surface-based buoyancy. Despite the stronger

midlevel flow and related deep-layer shear being displaced slightly

to the north, this boundary should continue to provide a focus for

loosely organized thunderstorm clusters through the remainder of the

afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates will promote locally

damaging wind gusts with the stronger clusters that evolve, and

isolated/marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with any

favorable cell/boundary interactions.



..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/11/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...



LAT...LON   37097985 37607966 37867930 37887887 37697838 37207744

            36947673 36627642 36257656 35937706 35927751 36137858

            36527941 36837974 37097985 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN