ACUS11 KWNS 142014

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 142014 

UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142215-



Mesoscale Discussion 1980

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0314 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026



Areas affected...portions of the southern Great Basin into the lower

Colorado River Basin



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 142014Z - 142215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms will

bring an isolated risk for damaging/severe wind gusts through this

afternoon.



DISCUSSION...In the wake of morning cloud cover, strong diurnal

heating and steepening low-level lapse rates amid low-to-mid 50s

dewpoints are supporting scattered thunderstorm development within a

corridor of greater buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) across portions

of the Great Basin and lower Colorado River Basin. Enhanced

southwesterly flow downstream of an upper low centered off of the

California coastline is contributing to modestly enhanced effective

shear of 25-35 kts, sufficient for modest updraft organization. In

conjunction with steep low-to-mid level lapse rates, high LCLs (2-3+

km), and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles, an isolated risk for

damaging/severe wind gusts may accompany developing thunderstorms

through this evening. This risk is expected to remain relatively

isolated. Thus, watch issuance is not anticipated.



..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/14/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...



LAT...LON   38301327 37721304 37011287 36481286 35801298 35391314

            34941342 34451386 34061425 33931463 33921497 34011517

            34221541 34541562 35241593 36101614 36971610 37781603

            38131585 38721542 38981491 39141448 38831367 38301327 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH