ACUS11 KWNS 170225

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 170225 

NDZ000-170400-



Mesoscale Discussion 1638

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0925 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026



Areas affected...north-central North Dakota



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...



Valid 170225Z - 170400Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491

continues.



SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and a brief tornado or two 

continues across western portions of the watch area.



DISCUSSION...As of 2:15Z, volumetric radar data indicates a

supercell over southern Benson County moving at 325/20 kt. The storm

has remained anchored to a boundary that extends to the

south-southwest with a recent tornado report near Maddock. Latest

objective analysis indicates 0-3-km CAPE as high as 150-175 J/kg

along the boundary, and while low-level shear is not overly strong,

the storm-boundary interaction will support a continued risk for a

brief tornado or two for the next 1-2 hours.



Despite echo tops approaching 65 kft at times, large hail has

remained limited. However, given the persistent supercell

structures, at least marginally severe hail will remain a threat.



..Mead.. 07/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...



LAT...LON   47909996 48229997 48529960 48389878 47809862 47569874

            47499960 47909996 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN