ACUS11 KWNS 191454

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 191454 

ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191700-



Mesoscale Discussion 0785

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0954 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026



Areas affected...Parts of north TX...southeast OK...AR



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 191454Z - 191700Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Some increase in the localized damaging-wind and isolated

hail threat is possible through the morning.



DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from north

TX into southeast OK and northern AR, generally along and to the

cool side of a southeastward-moving cold front. Very rich low-level

moisture and strong buoyancy are in place south of the front, with a

mean mixing ratio of 17.6 g/kg observed on the 12Z FWD sounding,

beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Filtered heating may allow for

gradual intensification of ongoing convection through the morning,

as storms continue to spread southeastward in conjunction with the

front. Additional development is possible within a prefrontal

confluence zone across north TX. 



While favorable thermodynamics will support potential for robust

updrafts through the day, storm organization will likely be hampered

by generally weak deep-layer flow/shear. A moderate low-level jet

noted in regional VWPs is expected to shift northeastward and weaken

through the day. Modest mid/upper-level flow may weaken further from

northeast TX into AR, along the northern periphery of an MCV

tracking well to the south near the upper TX coast. 



Given the generally weak flow, damaging-wind potential will be

driven by localized downbursts and any larger-scale cold pools that

can develop and spread southeastward. This potential will be

maximized in areas where the strongest preconvective heating occurs.

Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out, given the favorable

buoyancy. Watch issuance is unlikely through the morning, unless a

notable uptick in storm intensity and organization occurs.



..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...



LAT...LON   31460069 31840138 32300135 32330067 32659984 33129861

            34129761 34919617 35169447 35999418 36229290 36289130

            35469167 34359298 32799535 31629839 31400028 31460069 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN