ACUS11 KWNS 201337

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 201337 

MIZ000-WIZ000-201530-



Mesoscale Discussion 1671

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0837 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026



Areas affected...Western Upper Peninsula of Michigan and adjacent

Wisconsin



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 201337Z - 201530Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail are

possible this morning. A gradual weakening trend is anticipated and

a watch is not expected. Trends will continue to be monitored.



DISCUSSION...A small elevated linear segment has moved into the

western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The observed soundings from INL

and APX this morning show around 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. This

activity is currently being driven by moderate low-level warm

advection. With time, however, the low-level jet will weaken and

veer. Elevated buoyancy will be able to sustain robust convection

for another hour or two as it moves southeastward at around 35 kt.

The overall expectation is for this linear segment to outpace

favorable buoyancy before low-level moistening increases later

today. Isolated damaging winds will be the main threat this morning,

though steep mid-level lapse rates could support marginally severe

hail as well.



..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...



LAT...LON   46548988 47188889 46428704 45818661 45508680 45478777

            46548988 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN