ACUS11 KWNS 220436

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 220436 

MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220600-



Mesoscale Discussion 1247

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...



Valid 220436Z - 220600Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366

continues.



SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across the region have remained

below severe limits this evening and are not likely to intensify

further. As such, portions or all of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #366

can be canceled early.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of

south-central Missouri this evening. Despite what appears to be a

favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment (MUCAPE between

2000-3000 J/kg and effective-layer shear on the order of 40 knots,

these thunderstorms have struggled to intensify this evening. This

may be a subtle consequence of the ongoing MCV-aided convection

farther east. 



With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of a focused low-level

or large-scale forcing mechanism, the expectation is for ongoing

thunderstorms to remain below severe limits. As such portions, or

perhaps all, of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #366 can be canceled

before expiration at 06Z/01 AM CDT.



..Marsh.. 06/22/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...



LAT...LON   37219494 37609280 37519087 36928957 36388980 35979111

            35999251 36149388 36589485 36859504 37219494 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN