ACUS11 KWNS 252341

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 252340 

OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-260115-



Mesoscale Discussion 1322

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0640 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026



Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeastern

New Mexico into the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 252340Z - 260115Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a threat

for occasional large hail and damaging wind gusts.



DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have developed along the high

terrain areas and along a southward-progressing cold front from

southeastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico. Strong effective

shear (40-50+ kts) and MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg will continue to

support supercell structures, with elongated hodographs and

mid-level lapse rates of 8+ C/km supporting a risk for isolated

large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates will also promote a risk for

occasional damaging wind gusts. Increasing low-level stability/CIN

amid low-level cold air advection behind the cold front lends

uncertainty to longevity/persistence of these cells as they move off

of the high terrain. Given this, watch issuance remains uncertain.



..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/25/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...



LAT...LON   37430290 37230274 36880261 36470263 36190278 35990316

            35970350 36100386 36280417 36610443 36980459 37400473

            37730476 37980478 38190459 38260430 38200374 37900337

            37610307 37430290 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN