ACUS11 KWNS 271457

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 271457 

NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-271700-



Mesoscale Discussion 2145

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0957 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026



Areas affected...far eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...New York

City...and northern Delaware



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 271457Z - 271700Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of damaging winds,

marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado may increase by

late morning into early afternoon. Convective trends are being

monitored for a possible watch.



DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing as of

mid-morning from the New York City vicinity southwest toward

Baltimore, with that activity potentially being aided by forcing for

ascent associated with a low-amplitude disturbance moving into VA,

per water vapor imagery. The inflow air mass to these storms is

moist with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and where

stronger heating can occur, expect MLCAPE to increase to 1000-1500

J/kg by early afternoon.



A number of 12Z CAMs suggest the ongoing storms are likely to

persist into early afternoon amidst the destabilizing environment.

In that scenario, the presence of a vertically veering wind profile

with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (see current DIX VWP) would

support a conditional risk for embedded supercell structures capable

of locally damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a

brief tornado.



..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...



LAT...LON   39857580 40727540 41187489 41437413 41367351 40827327

            39777390 39247433 39197502 39517570 39857580 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN