ACUS11 KWNS 281757

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 281757 

NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-282000-



Mesoscale Discussion 1782

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1257 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026



Areas affected...The Colorado Front Range into northeast Colorado

and southwest Nebraska



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 281757Z - 282000Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Colorado Front Range

may pose a threat for isolated large hail over the next couple of

hours. Eventually, upscale growth into one or more organized

clusters/lines appears likely with a more widespread threat for

severe wind into northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska. Watch

issuance is possible in the coming hours as storms begin to mature.



DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data shows the early

stages of thunderstorm development along the CO Front Range and

further west within the higher terrain of the central Rockies. A

recent ACARs sounding from Denver, CO shows only around -50 J/kg

MLCIN remaining as temperatures warm into the mid/upper 80s. Further

heating at lower elevation should continue to reduce inhibition over

the next couple of hours and yield a thermodynamic environment

favorable for convective intensification - especially with eastward

extent into a plume of richer low-level moisture. Local VWPs are

also showing 20-25 knot westerly flow, which will promote eastward

advection of convection off the terrain and some degree of

organization in the coming hours. 



Consequently, it appears that some hail threat is possible in the

next couple of hours as isolated thunderstorms continue to develop

and mature. With time, cold pool expansion and storm interactions

should promote upscale growth within a deeply mixed, but buoyant,

environment. As this occurs, the potential for strong/severe winds

should increase and may pose a more widespread severe threat

downstream into northeast CO/southwest NE. It remains somewhat

unclear how extensive the near-term severe hail threat will be, but

watch issuance will likely be needed to address the severe wind

concern later this afternoon.



..Moore/Hart.. 07/28/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...



LAT...LON   39180526 40100526 40520515 40800497 41010463 41580304

            41720245 41650220 41300203 40830198 40330215 39890230

            39510255 39230280 39010322 38860361 38970500 39080520

            39180526 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN