ACUS11 KWNS 281831

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 281830 

CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282030-



Mesoscale Discussion 1784

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0130 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026



Areas affected...Southern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and

far southern New York



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...



Valid 281830Z - 282030Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525

continues.



SUMMARY...A couple of corridors of relatively greater severe wind

potential have emerged across portions of WW 525. These corridors

will continue to be the primary axes for severe weather over the

next few hours.



DISCUSSION...Regional radar and velocity imagery depicts a

consolidating cold pool within a loosely organized MCS across far

eastern PA and northern NJ. This line has reached sufficient

intensity to produce 50 mph gusts (recently measured at KABE), and

will continue to reside within a thermodynamic environment adequate

for MCS maintenance for at least next 1-2 hours (MLCAPE remains near

1000 J/kg downstream where temperatures are warming into the 80s).

Marginal deep-layer wind shear and a relatively narrow effective

warm sector should modulate overall storm intensity, but the

potential for damaging wind gusts should persist downstream. Local

expansions of WW 525 have been made to address this potential. 



Further west, a cluster of thunderstorms across south-central PA has

displayed signs of a slowly deepening and organizing cold pool.

Immediately downstream, a narrow corridor of partly cloudy skies has

allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s and MLCAPE to increase

to near 1500 J/kg. This more buoyant air mass, coupled with around

25 knots of 0-6 km BWD sampled by KCCX, may promote further

organization/intensification of the emerging line over the next 1-2

hours with an attendant threat for damaging winds.



..Moore.. 07/28/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...



LAT...LON   40187886 40327859 40497800 40607742 40597646 40717578

            40957524 41147493 41637441 41697407 41587373 41307357

            40727398 40387417 40107453 39737549 39637611 39637700

            39677782 39807854 39957885 40187886 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN