ACUS11 KWNS 291951

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 291951 

MTZ000-292145-



Mesoscale Discussion 0893

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0251 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026



Areas affected...Central Montana



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 291951Z - 292145Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts along with small to marginally severe

hail may occur this afternoon/evening in central Montana. Storm

coverage is expected to limit a more organized severe wind threat. A

watch is not anticipated at this time.



DISCUSSION...While some MLCIN remains within the plains, convection

continues to develop/deepen on the higher terrain of central

Montana. The 18Z observed Great Falls sounding showed nearly dry

adiabatic mid-level lapse rates. When modifying the sounding for

current surface observations, low-level lapse rates are also

similarly steep. That said, the boundary layer is quite dry and

dewpoints have since mixed down into the upper 40s F. With

additional surface heating, the expectation is for thunderstorms to

move north/north-northeast off of the terrain. Severe wind gusts

will be the primary hazard with this activity. Small hail is also

possible, though a stronger core could produce marginally severe

hail. Storm coverage is uncertain given weak large-scale ascent. Any

greater severe wind threat would be dependent on localized

clustering of storms/outflow.



..Wendt/Hart.. 05/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...



LAT...LON   46181131 47061205 48531217 49061133 49070964 48690859

            47920857 46330918 46181131 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN