ACUS11 KWNS 291952

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 291952 

NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292145-



Mesoscale Discussion 1797

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0252 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026



Areas affected...eastern Montana...northeastern Wyoming...western

Dakotas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 291952Z - 292145Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and spread

eastward through the afternoon/evening. One more more clusters of

damaging wind will be possible.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage across

the high terrain in eastern MT/WY. A cluster of thunderstorms also

continues eastward across eastern North Dakota, producing gusts up

to 57 mph. Downstream across the western Dakotas, temperatures have

warmed into the upper 90s to 100s F with dew points in the upper 50s

to 60s F amid strong MLCIN and sunny skies through most of the day.

18z soundings from BIS and UNR show moderate instability amid dry

sub-cloud layers near the surface. Also sampled are steep low to

mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. SPC Mesoanalysis would

suggest that MLCIN is eroding. This environment will support

potential for strong to severe gusts. Guidance suggests that one or

more organized clusters may develop and spread eastward through the

afternoon. A watch may be needed to cover this potential this

afternoon.



..Thornton/Hart.. 07/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...



LAT...LON   44520581 46090516 47490425 48660358 48880306 48980206

            48980137 48730084 48520047 47770033 47180045 46250063

            45100096 43620202 43600403 43680490 44520581 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN