ACUS11 KWNS 301702

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 301702 

MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-301900-



Mesoscale Discussion 0628

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026



Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Texas into much of

southern/coastal Louisiana



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 301702Z - 301900Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing along a cold front will

pose a risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds this

afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.



DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing

thunderstorm development along a west-east oriented cold front

currently analyzed across southern/coastal Louisiana into

southeastern Texas, with additional development expected through the

afternoon. The greatest severe potential exists along and south of

the surface front where greater buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE per

latest mesoanalysis) exists owing to surface temperatures near 80 F

and dewpoints in the mid-70s, with only weakly unstable profiles

(500 J/kg MUCAPE) based around 850 mb north of the surface front.

Elongated hodographs and strong westerly flow aloft evident in the

HDC VWP are contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear that

will support at least some potential for marginally severe hail and

gusty winds despite only modestly favorable thermodynamic profiles

(mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km per the 12z LIX observed

sounding and latest RAP forecast soundings). Isolated gusty/damaging

winds are also possible with any stronger downdrafts, but generally

weak low-level lapse rates should largely temper wind gust severity.

Modest 0-3 km CAPE (50-75 J/kg per regional forecast soundings) in

the presence of enhanced surface vorticity along the surface cold

front may also promote some potential for an isolated

landspout/waterspout with stronger updrafts. Watch issuance is

unlikely owing to the expected limited magnitude of severe

potential.



..Chalmers/Smith.. 04/30/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...



LAT...LON   29429214 29579283 29679319 29699348 29639377 29849390

            30189407 30619404 30949391 31049362 30989282 30809174

            30679082 30528994 30258906 30018860 29668859 29248873

            28958909 28868950 28989090 29179131 29429214 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN