AXNT20 KNHC 100831 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 22W and 27W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, south of 20N and extends into Guyana, moving westward at 15 kt. Limited convection is in the vicinity of the wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is in the vicinity of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to near 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 09N59W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 30W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient is over the discussion waters supporting gentle to locally moderate winds. These winds are generating mainly slight seas over the Gulf waters. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into early next week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight too locally moderate seas, are over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds through early next week. Moderate to rough seas will prevail over these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N50W and continues westward to near 28N60W where it becomes stationary to near 29N70W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N and W of 50W. Moderate to fresh winds are also over the far NE portion of the discussion waters, in the vicinity of the Canary Islands eastward toward the coast of Africa. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate seas prevail over much of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front over the NE waters will shift east of the area today. High pressure ridging will build across the region in the wake of the front. Light to gentle winds are expected in the vicinity of the ridge, N of 21N. Moderate to fresh winds S of 21N will diminish slightly by this weekend. $$ AL AXNT20 KNHC 100831 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 22W and 27W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, south of 20N and extends into Guyana, moving westward at 15 kt. Limited convection is in the vicinity of the wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is in the vicinity of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to near 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 09N59W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 30W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient is over the discussion waters supporting gentle to locally moderate winds. These winds are generating mainly slight seas over the Gulf waters. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into early next week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight too locally moderate seas, are over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds through early next week. Moderate to rough seas will prevail over these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N50W and continues westward to near 28N60W where it becomes stationary to near 29N70W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 25N and W of 50W. Moderate to fresh winds are also over the far NE portion of the discussion waters, in the vicinity of the Canary Islands eastward toward the coast of Africa. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate seas prevail over much of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front over the NE waters will shift east of the area today. High pressure ridging will build across the region in the wake of the front. Light to gentle winds are expected in the vicinity of the ridge, N of 21N. Moderate to fresh winds S of 21N will diminish slightly by this weekend. $$ AL