AXNT20 KNHC 120445 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near gale-force trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, into early next week. Early this afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed minimal gale- force winds off the north coast of Colombia, where satellite altimeter data showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia again tonight through Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected with these winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 69W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are depicted from 11N to 14.5N between 61.5W and the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 07N57W. Scattered convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 45W and 57W. Isolated convection is depicted from 08N to 10N between 20W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly low level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture into the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the central Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds east of 88W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds generally prevail west of 88W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a cold front will become stationary just N of the area early next week, enhancing thunderstorms across the far northern Gulf. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. A Gale Warning is in effect. As previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal gale-force offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds in the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin where moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean. For convection information over the eastern Caribbean, please read the Tropical Waves section above. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America supports gale-force NE winds and rough seas over the south central Caribbean tonight, and strong to near-gale trade winds across the central portion of the basin through the weekend. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 24N between 53W and 64W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to locally fresh winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for locally strong winds north of the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ KRV