AXNT20 KNHC 121014

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1000 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic

ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to gale-force off the 

coast of Colombia through this morning. Rough to very rough seas 

are expected with these winds.



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 70W

south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers 

and isolated thunderstorms are depicted along the wave axis from 

11N to 13N. 



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 18N16W and 

continues southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W

to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ

and W of 47W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...



The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward

across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly 

low-level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture

into the basin. Scattered showers are noted over the central 

Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds 

east of 88W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail west of 

88W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan 

Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin.



For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain N of the area 

through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf 

waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and 

locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Elsewhere, 

high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE 

winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the 

Yucatan Peninsula each night.  



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on

gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. 



The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the 

Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central 

Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal gale-force 

offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with these winds. 

Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate the 

eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds in 

the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin where

moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with 

embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between 

high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern

South America supports gale-force NE winds and rough seas over 

the south central Caribbean through this morning, and strong to 

near-gale trade winds across the central portion of the basin 

through the weekend. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse 

to strong each evening through the forecast period. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers 

and thunderstorms across the waters N of 24N between 53W and 64W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 

broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh winds 

south of 23N and moderate seas, except for strong winds north of 

the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or 

weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 

dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh

trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. 

Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola 

and in the Windward Passage. 



$$

ERA