AXPZ20 KNHC 211530

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu May 21 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



A tropical wave is near 97.5W from offshore Oaxaca southward is

moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted

from 02N to 15N between 93W and 100W. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 10N84W to 08.5N114W

to 05.5N123W to 06N126W. The ITCZ extends from 06N126W to 08N133W

to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 

present from 03N to 09N E of 92W, including the offshore waters 

of Panama and Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection 

is noted from 02N to 10N E of 97W and from 02.5N to 14N between 

97W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to

11N W of 115W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, leading to

mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds

are impacting waters near and offshore of Cabo San Lucas as 

modest ridging builds in from the N Pacific. Seas are moderate, 4

to 6 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft NW

of Isla Guadalupe, and slight in the Gulf of California.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving westward

across the outer waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, behind a

tropical wave.



For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through

late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds.

By late weekend and early next week, ridging building SW toward

the region will lead to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore

Baja California, along with a slight increase in seas. 



....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas continue

across the Papagayo region, with moderate N gap winds in the 

Gulf of Panama extending southward to near 06N. Elsewhere, active

convection continues across the waters E of 90W, that is 

described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above, N of the 

Monsoon Trough, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 

dominate, with gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds and 4 to

6 ft seas to the south.



For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse nightly in the

Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A surface trough that had been W of Baja California has

dissipated, and associated shower activity has also dissipated. 

Farther south, a 1008 mb low pressure is near the monsoon trough 

around 10N115.5W. Convection near this low is described in the 

ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above. A broad surface ridge extends 

southeastward from a 1033 mb high near 37N146W across 30N140W

then southward to the ITCZ. This feature is maintaining moderate

to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and 

west of 125W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 5 to 7 

ft in mixed NW and S swell continue north of the ITCZ east of 

125W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and 

seas at 5 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail.



For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually 

weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. 

This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to 

between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this

weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the

weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the

monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat.



$$

Stripling



AXPZ20 KNHC 211530

TWDEP



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu May 21 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



A tropical wave is near 97.5W from offshore Oaxaca southward is

moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted

from 02N to 15N between 93W and 100W. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 10N84W to 08.5N114W

to 05.5N123W to 06N126W. The ITCZ extends from 06N126W to 08N133W

to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 

present from 03N to 09N E of 92W, including the offshore waters 

of Panama and Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection 

is noted from 02N to 10N E of 97W and from 02.5N to 14N between 

97W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to

11N W of 115W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, leading to

mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds

are impacting waters near and offshore of Cabo San Lucas as 

modest ridging builds in from the N Pacific. Seas are moderate, 4

to 6 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft NW

of Isla Guadalupe, and slight in the Gulf of California.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving westward

across the outer waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, behind a

tropical wave.



For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through

late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds.

By late weekend and early next week, ridging building SW toward

the region will lead to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore

Baja California, along with a slight increase in seas. 



....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas continue

across the Papagayo region, with moderate N gap winds in the 

Gulf of Panama extending southward to near 06N. Elsewhere, active

convection continues across the waters E of 90W, that is 

described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above, N of the 

Monsoon Trough, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 

dominate, with gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds and 4 to

6 ft seas to the south.



For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse nightly in the

Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 

moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A surface trough that had been W of Baja California has

dissipated, and associated shower activity has also dissipated. 

Farther south, a 1008 mb low pressure is near the monsoon trough 

around 10N115.5W. Convection near this low is described in the 

ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above. A broad surface ridge extends 

southeastward from a 1033 mb high near 37N146W across 30N140W

then southward to the ITCZ. This feature is maintaining moderate

to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and 

west of 125W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 5 to 7 

ft in mixed NW and S swell continue north of the ITCZ east of 

125W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and 

seas at 5 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail.



For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually 

weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. 

This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to 

between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this

weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the

weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the

monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat.



$$

Stripling