AXPZ20 KNHC 261801 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 19.9N 141.1W at 26/1500 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Fausto center has moved west of the forecast area into the Central Pacific. Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP1.shtml for more details. Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 13.4N 109.4W at 26/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid intensification is expected during the next day or so. Genevieve is then forecast to start weakening by the middle of this week. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula tonight or Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W north of 03N to inland southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 11N to 14N between 89W and 93.5W. Similar convection is depicted from 03N to 06N between 90.5W and 94.5W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure over northwest Colombia westward across Panama and Costa Rica to 10N86W to 09N99W. The ITCZ extends from 10N116W to 07.5N128W. A cluster of strong convection is depicted from 03N to 09N and east of 80.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N between 115.5W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends northwest to southwest over the waters west of Baja California. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures over Baja California is supporting gentle to moderate northwest winds over the waters west of Baja California, primarily north of Punta Eugenia, mostly gentle northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia. Seas over the waters west of Baja California are 5 to 6 ft in northwest swell, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Light and variable winds are over waters southeast of Baja California to near 18N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. The aforementioned pressure gradient is also supporting fresh to strong SE winds over the northern Gulf of California along with seas 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere along the Gulf, gentle to moderate SW winds prevail with seas 2 to 4 ft. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the northern outer periphery of Hurricane Genevieve are present south of 17N along with seas 8 to 15 ft in southeast to south swell. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are also present over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas within these winds are 6 to 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 13N along the offshore waters between 96W and 108W. For the forecast, Genevieve will rapidly intensify as it moves near 13.8N 109.8W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 14.9N 111.8W late tonight, and continue to rapidly intensify as it moves to near 16.1N 113.4W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, move to near 17.1N 114.9W late Mon night, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 17.9N 116.3W Tue afternoon, to near 18.5N 117.9W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt and change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.8N 121.3W late Wed night. As Genevieve tracks in a general west- northwestward to northwestward motion west of Baja California Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. Swells from Genevieve will impact the waters from the state of Guerrero north to offshore Baja California Norte, including the southern portion of the Gulf of California through most of the upcoming week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the region. Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and extending downwind to near 90W, and northward to southern Nicaragua. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse through the period. Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama starting Wed along with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. The southwest swell will subside around midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto and on Major Hurricane Genevieve. Hurricane Fausto is impacting a portion of the western part of the area. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend northward to 26N, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also north of 15N west of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. Cross- equatorial southwest swell over the waters south of about 04.5N between 103W and 125W is providing for 8 to 9 ft seas over that portion of the area. A surface trough is analyzed between Fausto and Genevieve along a position from 12N132W to 02N129W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 09N between 128W and 135W. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto is west of 140W, maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, and to well west of the area near 20.7N 145.5W by Mon morning while gradually weakening. Hurricane Genevieve will rapidly intensify as it moves to near 13.8N 109.8W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 14.9N 111.8W late tonight, and continue to rapidly intensify as it moves to near 16.1N 113.4W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, move to near 17.1N 114.9W late Mon night, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 17.9N 116.3W Tue afternoon, to near 18.5N 117.9W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt and change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.8N 121.3W late Wed night. The aforementioned cross-equatorial swell mentioned earlier will decay early next week. $$ KRV