WDPN31 PGTW 272100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR

019//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.



SUMMARY:

   INITIAL POSITION: 26.3N 130.0E

   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS

   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM EAST OF KADENA AB

   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS

   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET



SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:

SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED TO 130 KNOTS NEAR

271600Z WHEN THE EYE CLEARED AND EYE TEMPERATURES WARMED TO ABOUT

+20C. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM UNDERWENT AN IMPRESSIVE

PERIOD OF EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI), INCREASING FROM 75

KNOTS AT 261800Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. ANIMATED

ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE

HAS QUICKLY BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND ASYMMETRIC AFTER 271600Z. HOWEVER,

SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAINED AT T6.5 (127 KNOTS) WITH

CIMSS SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 120-136 KNOTS, WHICH

SUPPORTED HEDGING THE INTENSITY UP TO STY INTENSITY. THE OVERALL

CORE STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED COMPACT AND WELL-ORGANIZED ON ANIMATED

RADAR IMAGERY, WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CORE AND A

SLIGHTLY OBLONG EYE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED HIGHLY

FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FUELING THE RECENT ERI EVENT. OVERALL, THERE IS

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND INITIAL POSITION.



INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK



CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)

POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.



AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:

   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS

   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS

   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS

   CIMSS SATCON: 120 KTS AT 271729Z

   CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 271730Z

   CIMSS AIDT: 123 KTS AT 271730Z

   CIMSS D-MINT: 136 KTS AT 271730Z

   CIMSS D-PRINT: 124 KTS AT 271830Z



FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE

   VWS: 10-15 KTS

   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS

   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:

   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH

   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH

   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM



3. FORECAST REASONING.



SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO

THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.



FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 25W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AWAY FROM OKINAWA

ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF

THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH STEADY WEAKENING AS IT

ENCOUNTERS GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY

AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS

EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AND INTERACTS WITH THE

FRONTAL ZONE. STY 25W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS

UNDER THE JET AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.



MODEL DISCUSSION: IN GENERAL, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE

TRACK SCENARIO AND JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE AI-BASED SUITE OF

MODELS MAINTAINING VERY CONSISTENT FORECASTS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS

PLUS. THE CURRENT AI SUITE OF TRACKERS DOES INDICATE A CROSS-TRACK

SPREAD OF 150NM AT TAU 96 WITH A LARGER ALONG TRACK SPREAD BUT ARE

GENERALLY LOCATED EAST OF NORTHERN HONSHU. GFS REMAINS THE PRIMARY

OUTLIER DESPITE GRADUALLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD.

GFS NOW WEAKENS AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF TOKYO PRIOR

TO GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE

EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OF GUAM IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE ECMWF

TRACKER TRUNCATES THE TRACK AT TAU 72 BUT THE 271200Z FIELDS SHOW

THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTEX TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, WITH

THE TAU 96 POSITION JUST WEST OF THE TAU 96 CONW POSITION. BASED ON

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS AI-BASED AND DETERMINISTIC

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WHICH INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION DUE

TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF JAPAN, THIS

LOW PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO REMAINS IN EFFECT. DUE TO THE

COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, IT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO COCOON ITSELF

AND TRACK FURTHER NORTHEAST WHEN IT TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERLIES.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE:

   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM

   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM

   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM

   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//

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