WTIN20 DEMS 031830 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03.11.2026 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 1800 UTC OF 03.11.2026 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 03.11.2026. SUB: CYCLONIC STORM MURASU [PRONUNCIATION: MURASU] WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH THE CYCLONIC STORM MURASU [PRONUNCIATION: MURASU] OVER SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH MOVED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY THE 03RD NOVEMBER, 2026 OVER THE COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, NEAR LATITUDE 16.3ON AND LONGITUDE 80.0OE, ABOUT 60 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANDIGAMA (43182,ANDHRA PRADESH), 70 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VIJAYAWADA (43181, ANDHRA PRADESH), 110 KM SOUTHEAST OF NALGONDA (43133,TELANGANA), 110 KM SOUTH OF KHAMMAM (43137, TELANGANA) AND 180 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BHADRACHALAM (43136,TELANGANA). THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 KMPH AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 3RD NOVEMBER 2026. CONTINUING TO MOVE NEARLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION (WIND SPEED REACHING 40-50 KMPH GUSTING TO 60 KMPH) BY 0000 UTC OF TOMORROW, THE 4TH NOVEMBER, 2026. IT IS UNDER THE CONTINUOUS SURVEILLANCE OF DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AT MACHILIPATNAM AND VISAKHAPATNAM. FORECAST LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN FOLLOWING TABLE: DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC (UTC) (LAT.0N/LONG.0E) SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH) DISTURBANCE 03.11.26/1500 16.3/80.0 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION 03.11.26/1800 16.5/80.0 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION 04.11.26/0000 16.8 /80.0 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT GUSTING TO 40KT. AMARAVATI (43176, ANDHRA PRADESH) REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL (MSLP) OF 1009.0 HPA, 24 HOURS PRESSURE CHANGE (P24) AS -3.6 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (MSW) AS 900 /13KT, VIJAYAWADA GANNAVARAM (43181, ANDHRA PRADESH) REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL (MSLP) OF 1012.2 HPA, 24 HOURS PRESSURE CHANGE (P24) AS -2.2 HPA CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. AS PER LATEST INSAT 3DS IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC, VORTEX (MURASU) OVER COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD CENTRED NEAR 16.40N/80.10E. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, TELANGANA, SOUTH CHHATTISGARH AND SOUTH ODISHA (MINIMUM CTT IS -70 TO -900C). SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER TAMILNADU, RAYALASEEMA, EASTERN PART OF INTERIOR KARNATAKA, VIDARBHA, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, NORTH CHHATTISGARH, NORTH ODISHA, JHARKHAND, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL (MINIMUM CTT IS -40 TO -700C). REMARKS: THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 5 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. THE GUIDANCE FROM THE NCICS MODEL INDICATES WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) ALONG WITH MJO OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) TO ITS NORTH OVER WESTCENTRAL BOB. ACTIVE MJO PHASE IS PERSISTING OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY IS ELLIPTICAL, AND IS 100 X10-6 S-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 5-10X10-6 S-1 TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM AREA. IT IS ORIENTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH- NORTHEAST. THE POSITIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 5-10 X10-6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AREA. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AREA HAS INCREASED BECOMING 10\U201320 KNOTS AND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE FURTHER TO > 20 KNOTS FROM 0000 UTC OF 4TH NOVEMBER. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS SHOWS A DECREASING TREND AND IS LIKELY TO FALL SHARPLY BELOW 60% BY 1200 UTC OF 4TH NOVEMBER. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, INCLUDING THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND (GDM) AI MODEL INDICATE INITIAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT UP TO 0000 UTC OF 4TH NOVEMBER THEN FOLLOWED BY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT AS A WEAK SYSTEM. YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH PENINSULAR INDIA HAS BECOME LESS MARKED. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL EXTENDS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARDS UP TO THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND RUNS ALONG 17ON. THE SYSTEM CENTRE LIES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE, WHICH IS STEERING IT SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS . THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TILL 1800 UTC OF TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKENS GRADUALLY, ITS VERTICAL EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED UP TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS BY 1800 UTC OF TODAY, AND SO ITS STEERING LEVEL WILL CHANGE. ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT IS THEREFORE LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN THEREAFTER, AND IT MAY MOVE WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLIES. HOWEVER, THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN, AS IT DEPENDS ON THE RATE AND TIMING OF WEAKENING INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND THE STEERING WINDS AT THAT TIME. THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES MAY ALSO INFLUENCE ITS MOVEMENT. HENCE, THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON 4TH NOVEMBER. CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, CLIMATOLOGICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE, THE CYCLONIC STORM \U201CMURASU\U201D IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION (WIND SPEED REACHING 40-50 KMPH GUSTING TO 60 KMPH) BY 0000 UTC OF TOMORROW, THE 4TH NOVEMBER, 2026. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ESTIMATION OF: (A) CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY: HIGH (B) FORECAST TRACK: MODERATE (C) FORECAST INTENSITY: HIGH (.)=