WTIN20 DEMS 040354

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.11.2026

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY

OF

BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT

0330

UTC OF 04.11.2026 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 04.11.2026.



SUB: DEPRESSION (REMNANT OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM \U201CMURASU\U201D)

OVER EAST TELANGANA &

ADJOINING COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH

.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION (REMNANT OF SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM

\U201CMURASU\U201D) OVER COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH &

ADJOINING EAST TELANGANA MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 10

KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS,

WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE

04TH NOVEMBER, 2026, OVER EAST

TELANGANA & ADJOINING COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH NEAR LATITUDE 17.0ON AND

LONGITUDE 80.1OE, ABOUT 30 KM

NORTHWEST OF NANDIGAMA (43182,ANDHRA PRADESH), 30 KM SOUTH OF KHAMMAM

(43137,TELANGANA), 80 KM

NORTHWEST OF VIJAYAWADA (43181, ANDHRA PRADESH), 90 KM EAST OF

NALGONDA (43133, TELANGANA) AND 110

KM SOUTHWEST OF BHADRACHALAM (43136,TELANGANA).

CONTINUING TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN

FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE

AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.

IT IS UNDER THE CONTINUOUS SURVEILLANCE OF DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AT

MACHILIPATNAM AND VISAKHAPATNAM.

THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND

SPEED IS 25 KT

GUSTING TO 35KT.

AS PER LATEST INSAT 3DS IMAGERY BASED ON 0000 UTC, VORTEX (MURASU)

OVER NORTH COASTAL

ANDHRA PRADESH & ADJOINING EAST TELANGANA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD CENTRED

NEAR 17.00N/80.10E.

ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED

INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, COASTAL ANDHRA

PRADESH, TELANGANA, SOUTH

CHHATTISGARH AND SOUTH ODISHA (MINIMUM CTT IS -70 TO -900C).

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND

MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER

SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA

PRADESH, TAMILNADU, RAYALASEEMA, EASTERN PART OF INTERIOR KARNATAKA,

VIDARBHA, EAST MADHYA

PRADESH, NORTH CHHATTISGARH, NORTH ODISHA, JHARKHAND, GANGETIC WEST

BENGAL, SOUTH BIHAR

(MINIMUM CTT IS -40 TO -700C).

REMARKS:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 3 WITH

AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO

CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 5 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1.

THE GUIDANCE FROM THE NCICS

MODEL INDICATES WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) ALONG WITH MJO OVER

SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND EASTERLY





WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) TO ITS NORTH OVER WESTCENTRAL BOB. ACTIVE MJO

PHASE IS PERSISTING OVER THE REGION

WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

LOW LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY IS ELLIPTICAL, AND IS 100 X10-6S-1

AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL

DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 5-10X10-6 S-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM AREA. THE

POSITIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND

5-10 X10-6 S-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM AREA.

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AREA HAS INCREASED BECOMING

20\U201330 KNOTS AND IS HIGH > 30 KNOTS

ALONG THE EXPECTED DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN

THE MIDDLE LEVELS SHOWS A DECREASING

TREND AND IS LIKELY TO FALL SHARPLY BELOW 60% BY 1200 UTC OF 4TH

NOVEMBER. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE

MODELS, INCLUDING THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND (GDM) AI MODEL INDICATE

INITIAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT UP TO 0000

UTC OF 4TH NOVEMBER THEN FOLLOWED BY NEARLY SOUTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT

AS A WEAK SYSTEM. RIDGE FROM

THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS UP TO THE

CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND RUNS ALONG 17ON. THE SYSTEM CENTRE LIES CLOSE

TO THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND

IS THUS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWARDS INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL

NORTHEASTWARDS RECURVATURE ALONG THE OUTER

PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARDS AND WEAKENS

GRADUALLY, ITS VERTICAL EXTENT IS EXPECTED

TO BE CONFINED UP TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS, AND THUS STEERING

LEVEL MAY CHANGE. ITS NEARLY NORTHWARD

MOVEMENT MAY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

NORTHEASTERLIES IN MID TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, CLIMATOLOGICAL AND MODEL

GUIDANCE, THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO

CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN

FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE

AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ESTIMATION OF:

(A) CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY: HIGH

(B) FORECAST TRACK: MODERATE

(C) FORECAST INTENSITY: HIGH=