WTIN20 DEMS 040650 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.10.2026 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 04.10.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 04.10.2026. BAY OF BENGAL: SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EXTREME NORTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST PARTS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS) 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIAN SEA: A FRESH UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LAY OVER GULF OF MANNAR & ADJOINING SOUTH COASTAL TAMIL NADU AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH OCTOBER, 2026. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA LAY OVER SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA & ADJOINING NORTH KERALA AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 03 RD OCTOBER 2026. IT MERGED WITH THE TROUGH RUNNING FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GULF OF MANNAR & ADJOINING SOUTH COASTAL TAMIL NADU TO EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ACROSS NORTH INTERIOR TAMIL NADU AND NORTH KERALA AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH OCTOBER, 2026. THE UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER COMORIN AND ADJOINING AREA BECAME LESS MARKED AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 03 RD OCTOBER 2026. YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN BECAME LESS MARKED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04 TH OCTOBER, 2026. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AREA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA. CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY REMARKS \U2013 NIL=