WTIN20 DEMS 050741 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.07.2026 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL OF AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0700 UTC OF 05.07.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 05.07.2026. SUB: DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING AREAS OF NORTH ODISHA- WEST BENGAL COASTS THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING AREAS OF NORTH ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH JULY 2026, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 21.1ON AND LONGITUDE 87.2OE, ABOUT 50 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BALASORE (42895), 60 KM NORTHEAST OF CHANDBALI (42973) AND 60 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ODISHA COAST BETWEEN CHANDBALI AND DIGHA CLOSE TO BALASORE DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER WEST- NORTHWESTWARDS, ACROSS NORTH ODISHA AND NORTH CHHATTISGARH DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT. DIGHA (42901) REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 992.2 HPA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (MSW) OF 1100/ 03 KT, PRESSURE CHANGE IN PAST 24 HOURS (P24) OF -2.2 HPA; BALASORE (42895) REPORTED MSLP OF 992.6 HPA, MSW OF 500/ 02 KT AND CHANDBALI (42793) REPORTED MSLP OF 992.3 HPA, P24 OF -2.6 HPA. AS PER INSAT-3D(S) IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. SCATTERED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH & CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ODISHA, SOUTHEAST JHARKHAND, CHHATTISGARH, SOUTH WEST BENGAL, SOUTH BANGLADESH (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE -700C TO -900C). REMARKS: OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS 80-100 KJ/CM2 OVER THE NORTHWEST BOB. THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS ABOUT 100X 10-6S-1 OVER NORTHWEST BOB AND ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA AND IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 30X10-6S-1 OVER INTERIOR ODISHA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS 20 X 10-6S-1 OVER NORTH ODISHA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS LOW TO MODERATE 10-15 KT OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND ALONG THE PREDICTED PATH. THE GUIDANCE FROM NCICS MODEL INDICATES THE PREVALENCE OF WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL BOB, ALONG WITH EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE (ERW), KELVIN WAVE (KW) & MJO AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY (5-7 MPS) OVER NORTH & ADJOINING AREAS OF CENTRAL BOB, INDICATING A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION OF WELL MARKED LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BOB AND ADJOINING ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS INTO A DEPRESSION. SIMILAR FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, SIMILAR FAVOURABLE FEATURES ARE INDICATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INDICATING THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS. UNDER THESE FAVOURABLE FEATURES, THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING AREAS OF NORTH ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION OVER THE SAME REGION. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF, NCUM ARE INDICATING DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS AT 0000 UTC OF 5TH JULY. MODELS ARE INDICATING, THE SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ODISHA COAST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NCUM SHOWING CROSSING AROUND 05/0600 UTC, ECMWF AROUND 06/0000 UTC, NCEP GFS AROUND 04/1800 UTC AND IMD GFS OVER ODISHA.COAST AT 05/0000 UTC. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING AREAS OF NORTH ODISHA- WEST BENGAL COASTS IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ODISHA COAST BETWEEN CHANDBALI AND DIGHA CLOSE TO BALASORE DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS NORTH ODISHA AND CHATTISGARH DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.=