WTIN20 DEMS 052040 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.07.2026 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL OF AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 2030 UTC OF 05.07.2026 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 05.07.2026. SUB:DEPRESSION OVER NORTH-INTERIOR ODISHA AND ADJOINING SOUTH JHARKHAND THE DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH ODISHA AND ADJOINING WEST BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH JULY 2026, OVER NORTH-INTERIOR ODISHA & ADJOINING SOUTH JHARKHAND NEAR LATITUDE 22.1ON AND LONGITUDE 86.0OE, ABOUT 80 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BARIPADA (42894), 70 KM NORTHEAST OF KEONJHARGARH (42891), 80 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMSHEDPUR (42799) AND 180 KM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF ROURKELA (42793). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WEST\U2013NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS NORTH ODISHA & ADJOINING SOUTH JHARKHAND AND NORTH CHHATTISGARH DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT. RANCHI (42701) REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 993.9 HPA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (MSW) OF 50 0 / 02 KT; P24 OF -1.8 HPA.; PURI(43053) REPORTED MSLP OF 996.7 HPA, MSW OF 230 0 / 15 KT; JHARSUGUDA (42886) REPORTED MSLP OF 995.9 HPA AND DIGHA (42901) REPORTED MSLP OF 994.2 HPA & PRESSURE CHANGE IN PAST 24 HOURS (P24) OF 1.4 HPA. AS PER INSAT-3D(S) IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ODISHA, SOUTH JHARKHAND, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, SOUTH BANGLADESH, MIZORAM & TRIPURA (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE -700C TO -90 0C). REMARKS: OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS 80-100 KJ/CM2 OVER THE NORTHWEST BOB. THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS ABOUT 100- 120 X 10-6 S -1 OVER NORTH ODISHA COAST AND IS EXTENDING UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS THE SAME IN PAST 6 HOURS AND IS AROUND 30X10-6 S -1 OVER NORTH COASTAL ODISHA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS THE SAME AND IS AROUND 10 X 10-6 S -1 OVER NORTH ODISHA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS LOW TO MODERATE 10-15 KT OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND ALONG THE PREDICTED PATH. THE GUIDANCE FROM NCICS MODEL INDICATES THE PREVALENCE OF WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) OVER SOUTH & ADJOINING CENTRAL BOB, ALONG WITH EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE (ERW), KELVIN WAVE (KW) & MJO AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY (5-7 MPS) OVER NORTH & ADJOINING AREAS OF CENTRAL BOB. THIS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT LED TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF WELL MARKED LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BOB AND ADJOINING ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS INTO A DEPRESSION AT 0300 UTC OF 5TH JULY. CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. SIMILAR FAVOURABLE FEATURES ARE INDICATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INDICATING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE FROM NUMERICAL MODELS: ECMWF IS INDICATING NEARLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, IT INDICATES RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION ON 7TH JULY AND GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARDS RE-CURVATURE ON 9TH JULY. HOWEVER, GFS GROUP AND NCUM ARE INDICATING GRADUAL WEAKENING OF SYSTEM WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 8TH JULY. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE THE DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH ODISHA AND ADJOINING WEST BENGAL IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WEST\U2013NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS NORTH ODISHA & ADJOINING SOUTH JHARKHAND AND NORTH CHHATTISGARH DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.=