WTIN20 DEMS 061700 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 06.07.2026 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL OF AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 06.07.2026 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 06.07.2026. SUB: DEPRESSION OVER NORTH CHHATTISGARH AND ADJOINING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH AND NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING NORTH CHHATTISGARH MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 32 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 6TH JULY 2026, OVER NORTH CHHATTISGARH AND ADJOINING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH AND NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH, NEAR LATITUDE 23.8ON AND LONGITUDE 82.7OE, ABOUT 90 KM NORTHWEST OF AMBIKAPUR (42693), 110 KM SOUTHEAST OF SIDHI (42577), 190 KM EAST OF UMARIA (42679) AND 210 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATNA (42571). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS NORTH CHHATTISGARH & EAST MADHYA PRADESH AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT. SIDHI(42577) REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 992.4 HPA & MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (MSW) OF 900 / 03 KT; REWA (42574) REPORTED MSLP OF 994.0 HPA,MSW OF 750/ 10 KT; AMBIKAPUR (42693) REPORTED MSLP OF 996.4 HPA. THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS FILLING IN THE SYSTEM AREA. AS PER INSAT-3D(S) IMAGERY, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER ODISHA, JHARKHAND, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, TELANGANA AND RAYALASEEMA (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE -70OC TO -90OC). REMARKS: THE GUIDANCE FROM NCICS MODEL INDICATES THE PREVALENCE OF WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) ALONG WITH EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE (ERW), KELVIN WAVE (KW) & MJO OVER CENTRAL BOB & ADJOINING CENTRAL INDIA AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY (5-7 MPS) OVER EASTERN PARTS OF INDIA. SIMILAR FAVOURABLE FEATURES ARE INDICATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INDICATING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND IS ABOUT 80-100 X 10-6 S-1 OVER NORTH ODISHA AND ADJOINING CHHATTISGARH AND IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS THE SAME IN PAST 3 HOURS AND IS AROUND 10X10-6S-1 OVER NORTH INTERIOR ODISHA AND ADJOINING JHARKHAND. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS THE SAME IN PAST 3 HOURS AND IS AROUND 10 X 10-6S-1 OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS LOW 05-10 KT OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND ALONG THE PREDICTED PATH. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ZONE OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF NORTH MAHARASHTRA COAST. THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. GUIDANCE FROM NUMERICAL MODELS: ECMWF IS INDICATING NEARLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT ACROSS JHARKHAND & ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA AND NORTH CHHATTISGARH WITH WEAKENING TREND TILL 7TH MIDNIGHT (1800 UTC). HOWEVER, AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SUBSEQUENTLY, IT IS LIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF UTTAR PRADESH AROUND 8TH JULY MORNING. MODEL IS FURTHER INDICATING GRADUAL EAST- NORTHEASTWARDS RE-CURVATURE ON 9TH JULY. HOWEVER, GFS GROUP AND NCUM ARE INDICATING GRADUAL WEAKENING OF SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TILL 9TH JULY. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTH CHHATTISGARH AND ADJOINING AREAS OF SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH AND NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS NORTH CHHATTISGARH & EAST MADHYA PRADESH AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.=