WTIN20 DEMS 110713 REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE -TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 11.08.2026 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 11.08.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11.08.2026. BAY OF BENGAL: THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH MADHYA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD LAY OVER NORTHWEST MADHYA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 10TH AUGUST, 2026 AND PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH AUGUST, 2026. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDED UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL TILTING SOUTHWARDS WITH HEIGHT. YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL & NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION AND EXTENDED UPTO 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL TILTING SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH HEIGHT AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH AUGUST, 2026. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE SAME REGION AROUND 12TH AUGUST, 2026. SCATTERED TO BROKEN, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH & CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA, ARAKAN COAST, GULF OF MARTABAN AND TENASSERIM COAST. SCATTERED LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS) 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL LOW MOD MOD - NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIAN SEA: SCATTERED LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER GULF OF CAMBAY, NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND THE LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AREA. SCATTERED LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND GULF OF KUTCH. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. REMARKS: THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MODEL IS CURRENTLY INDICATING AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). IT IS INDICATED TO PERSIST OVER THE SAME REGION AND CONCENTRATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 12TH AUGUST AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS GANGETIC WEST BENGAL & ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA TILL 15TH AUGUST. GFS GROUP OF MODELS IS INDICATING UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH BOB DURING 2 DAYS. ECMM IS INDICATING MODERATE PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) AROUND 13TH AUGUST. IMD TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER (GPP) GUIDANCE IS INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE OVER NORTH BOB AROUND 11TH & 12TH AUGUST. CONSIDERING ALL THESE LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING 12TH TO 14TH AUGUST.=