WTIN20 DEMS 120934

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12.10.2026

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF

BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT

0600

UTC OF 12.10.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 12.10.2026.

BAY OF BENGAL:

YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER STRAIT OF

MALACCA EMERGED OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN

SEA & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 11TH OCTOBER,

2026. IT PERSISTED OVER THE

SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH OCTOBER, 2026 EXTENDING

UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN

SEA LEVEL. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, A LOW-PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM

OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAY OF

BENGAL AROUND 13TH OCTOBER.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO

VERY INTENSE CONVECTION

LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA, ARAKAN

COAST, GULF OF MARTABAN AND

TENASSERIM COAST. SCATTERED LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED

ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE

CONVECTION LAY OVER THE WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL.

*PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT

168 HRS)

24      24-48     48-72     72-96      96-120      120-144

144-168

HOURS   HOURS     HOURS     HOURS      HOURS       HOURS        HOURS



NIL     NIL       NIL       NIL        NIL         NIL          NIL

*NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY



ARABIAN SEA:

YESTERDAY UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GULF OF MANNAR &

ADJOINING SOUTH TAMIL NADU COAST

AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300

UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH

OCTOBER, 2026.

YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA

& NEIGHBOURHOOD LAY OVER

SOUTH KERALA & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 0.9 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL AT

0000 UTC AND BECAME LESS

MARKED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH OCTOBER, 2026.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO

INTENSE CONVECTION LAY

OVER WESTCENTRAL & SOUTH ARABIAN SEA, LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS,

MALDIVES AND COMORIN AREA.

SCATTERED LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO

MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER

THE EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.



CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN:

51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURE(CTT)>-

25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC

AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS

(FORMATION OF

DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100%

THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES.

VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS.

*PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT

168 HRS:

24      24-48     48-72     72-96      96-120      120-144

144-168

HOURS   HOURS     HOURS     HOURS      HOURS       HOURS        HOURS



NIL     NIL       NIL       NIL        NIL         NIL          NIL

*NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY



REMARKS \U2013 NIL=