WTIN20 DEMS 150739 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15.08.2026 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 15.08.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 15.08.2026. BAY OF BENGAL: YESTERDAY\U2019S WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER JHARKHAND WEAKENED INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST JHARKHAND & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 0000 UTC AND PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH AUGUST, 2026.THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDED UPTO 4.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. A FRESH UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LAY OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN 5.8 & 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVELS AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 14TH AUGUST, 2026. IT PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH AUGUST, 2026. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ARAKAN COAST, NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND GULF OF MARTABAN. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS) 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIAN SEA: SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER EAST ARABIAN SEA, LAKSHADWEEP ISLAND AREA, MALDIVES & COMORIN AREA AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER REST OF ARABIAN SEA, GULF OF KUTCH & GULF OF CAMBAY. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY REMARKS: NIL=