WTIN20 DEMS 160800

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE -TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW



DELHI TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 16.09.2026

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF

BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT

0600

UTC OF 16.09.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 16.09.2026. BAY OF BENGAL:

AN UPPER-AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LAY OVER NORTH THAILAND EXTENDING

UPTO 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA

LEVEL AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 16TH SEPTEMBER, 2026. IT IS LIKELY TO

EMERGE OVER NORTH ANDAMAN

SEA AROUND 18TH EVENING (1200 UTC). UNDER ITS INFLUENCE A LOW

PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM

OVER THE SAME REGION AROUND THE EVENING (1200 UTC) OF 19TH SEPTEMBER,

2026. THEREAFTER, IT IS

LIKELY TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS

SOUTH ODISHA-NORTH ANDHRA

PRADESH COASTS DURING SUBSEQUENT 3-4 DAYS. YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER AIR

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH

ODISHA & WEST BENGAL MERGED WITH THE TROUGH RUNNING FROM NORTHERN

PARTS OF GANGETIC WEST

BENGAL TO NORTH ODISHA BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN LEVEL AT 0300

UTC OF TODAY, 16TH

SEPTEMBER 2026. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH

EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION

LAY OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA,

GULF OF MARTABAN &

TENASSERIM COAST. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED

MODERATE TO INTENSE

CONVECTION LAY OVER REST OF BAY OF BENGAL, ARAKAN COAST AND ANDAMAN

SEA. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING

NEXT 168 HRS)



24       24-48    48-72    72-96    96-120    120-144     144-168

HOURS    HOURS    HOURS    HOURS    HOURS      HOURS      HOURS



NIL       NIL      NIL     NIL       LOW       LOW         MOD















*NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY

ARABIAN SEA:

YESTERDAY\U2019S LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST RAJASTHAN AND

ADJOINING KUTCH REGION &

SOUTHEAST PAKISTAN LAY OVER SAURASHTRA & ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN

SEA AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,

THE 16TH SEPTEMBER 2026. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDED

UP TO 5.8 KM ABOVE

MEAN SEA LEVEL TILTING SOUTHWARDS WITH HEIGHT. AS PER INSAT 3D(S),

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) LAY OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND

NEIGHBORHOOD. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS

WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO

VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, OFF GUJARAT

COAST (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURE (CTT) -70



0C TO -90



0C). MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER KUTCH, GULF OF



KUTCH AND SOUTHEAST PAKISTAN (MINIMUM CTT -40

0C TO -70



0C). SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE

TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION

LAY OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF GUJARAT COAST, SOUTHEAST ARABIAN,

LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AREA, MALDIVES AND COMORIN AREA. SCATTERED LOW

AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO

INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE GULF OF KUTCH AND REST ARABIAN SEA.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168

HRS:



24       24-48    48-72    72-96    96-120    120-144     144-168

HOURS    HOURS    HOURS    HOURS    HOURS      HOURS      HOURS



NIL       NIL      NIL     NIL       NIL       NIL         NIL









*NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT

DAY

REMARKS  NIL=