WTIN20 DEMS 180401 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 18.08.2026 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 18.08.2026 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 18.08.2026. SUB: DEPRESSION OVER JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING NORTHERN PARTS OF GANGETIC WEST BENGAL DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF GANGETIC WEST BENGAL & NEIGHBOURHOOD MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 10 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 18TH AUGUST, 2026, OVER JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING NORTHERN PARTS OF GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, NEAR LATITUDE 23.8ON AND LONGITUDE 86.1OE, ABOUT 100 KM NORTHEAST OF RANCHI (42701, JHARKHAND), 160 KM SOUTHEAST OF GAYA (42591, BIHAR), 210 KM EAST OF DALTONGANJ (42587, JHARKHAND), 300 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF AMBIKAPUR (42693, CHHATTISGARH), 380 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VARANASI (42479, UTTAR PRADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS JHARKHAND AND BIHAR DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. AS PER INSAT 3D(S), INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS LAY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER BIHAR, JHARKHAND, CHHATTISGARH, ODISHA, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 70-900 C. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA AND ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT. SEA CONDITION IS VERY LIKELY TO BE VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL & ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH; ODISHA & NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS TILL 0000 UTC OF 19 TH AUGUST AND IMPROVE GRADUALLY THEREAFTER. RANCHI (42701, JHARKHAND) REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) AS 999.7 HPA, PRESSURE CHANGE IN PAST 24 HOURS (P24) AS -0.5 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (MSW) AS 2700 /03 KT. DALTONGANJ (42587, JHARKHAND) REPORTED MSLP AS 1000.9 HPA. GAYA (42591, BIHAR) REPORTED MSLP AS 1000.9 HPA. VARANASI (42479, UTTAR PRADESH) REPORTED MSLP AS 1001.8 HPA, P24 AS -0.3 HPA AND MSW AS 2000 /03 KT. AMBIKAPUR (42693, CHHATTISGARH) REPORTED MSLP AS 1004.7 HPA. REMARKS: MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX IS IN PHASE 6 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH A DECREASING TREND IN AMPLITUDE DURING NEXT 8-10 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE FROM NCICS MODEL INDICATES WESTERLY WEAK WIND ANOMALY (1-3 MPS) OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF BOB AND PREVALENCE OF EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE (ERW) OVER NORTH BOB WITH EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY (3-5 MPS) OVER EASTERN PARTS OF INDIA & BANGLADESH ON 18TH AUGUST. THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS ABOUT 90-100 X 10-6S-1 OVER ODISHA AND ADJOINING JHARKHAND, TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM CENTER. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UP TO 200 HPA LEVEL. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 15 X10-6S-1 TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE AND ANOTHER ZONE OF 10 X10-6S-1 TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED AND IS AROUND 20 X10-6S-1 OVER ODISHA TO THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS MODERATE (15-20 KT) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH. THESE FAVOURABLE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER LAND. CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. THE VARIOUS NWP MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING BIHAR TOWARDS EAST UTTAR PRADESH. BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS: CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ESTIMATION OF CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY: HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN PREDICTION OF FORECAST TRACK: HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN PREDICTION OF FORECAST INTENSITY: HIGH CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, DEPRESSION OVER JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING GANGETIC WEST BENGAL IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS JHARKHAND AND BIHAR DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.=