WTIN20 DEMS 190930 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 19.08.2026 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 19.08.2026 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 19.08.2026. SUB: DEPRESSION OVER NORTH JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BIHAR & SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH WEAKENED INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPRESSION OVER NORTH JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BIHAR & SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKENED INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 19TH AUGUST, 2026. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH & ADJOINING NORTH CHHATTISGARH AND NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. AS PER INSAT 3D(S), INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS LAY TO THE WEST & SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH, EAST MADHYA PRADESH, NORTH CHHATTISGARH WITH MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE AS -700C TO -900C. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER VIDARBHA, COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, RAYALASEEMA, NORTH ODISHA AND JHARKHAND. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA AND ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. PATNA (BIHAR) REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) AS 1001.8 HPA, PRESSURE CHANGE IN PAST 24 HRS (P24) AS +1.5 HPA, AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED (MSW) AS 90 0 /04 KT. DALTONGANJ (JHARKHAND) REPORTED MSLP AS 1002.2 HPA, P24 AS -1.5 HPA AND MSW AS 270 0 /02 KT. GAYA REPORTED MSLP AS 1002.3 HPA, P24 AS 0.4 HPA, MSW AS 270 0 /02 KT. REMARKS: MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX IS IN PHASE 6 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH A DECREASING TREND IN AMPLITUDE DURING NEXT 8-10 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE FROM NCICS MODEL INDICATES WESTERLY WEAK WIND ANOMALY (3-5 MPS) OVER EASTERN PARTS OF INDIA & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BOB AND PREVALENCE OF EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE (ERW) OVER NORTH BOB WITH EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY (3-5 MPS) OVER TO ITS NORTH OVER INDO GANGETIC PLAINS ON 19TH AUGUST. THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS DECREASED AND IS AROUND 60-70 X 10-6 S -1 OVER SYSTEM AREA. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UP TO 500 HPA LEVEL. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-6 S -1 OVER SYSTEM AREA. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-6 S -1 OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS MODERATE (10-15 KT) OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH. CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. VARIOUS NWP MODELS ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AS A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA/ LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS NORTH JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING AREAS OF SOUTH BIHAR & SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH JHARKHAND AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BIHAR & SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH & ADJOINING NORTH CHHATTISGARH AND NORTHEAST MADHYA PRADESH DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST UPDATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, REGULAR UPDATES SHALL CONTINUE FROM THE REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE, NEW DELHI HENCEFORTH.=