WTIN20 DEMS 270725 DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 27.09.2026 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 27.09.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 27.09.2026. BAY OF BENGAL: (A) WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL UTTAR PRADESH THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL UTTAR PRADESH PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 27TH SEPTEMBER 2026. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDED UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS UTTAR PRADESH AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. AS PER INSAT 3DS IMAGERY AT 0300 UTC OF 27TH SEPTEMBER, THE VORTEX LAY OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL UTTAR PRADESH CENTRED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF 27.7 O N/ 88.8 O E . ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER HIMACHAL PRADESH, UTTRAKHAND, UTTAR PRADESH, BIHAR, SIKKIM, NEPAL (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS - 40-70 OC). (B) LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH COASTAL MYANMAR AND NEIGHBOURHOOD THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH COASTAL MYANMAR AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 27TH SEPTEMBER 2026. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 9.4 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. IT IS LIKELY TO EMERGE INTO NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING IRRAWADDY DELTA OF MYANMAR DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG AND OFF MYANMAR\U2013BANGLADESH COASTS TOWARDS NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING BANGLADESH DURING SUBSEQUENT 2 DAYS. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) LAY OVER SOUTH MYANMAR COAST AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER ANDAMAN ISLANDS & SEA, SOUTH MYANMAR, THAILAND, GULF OF THAILAND ( MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS- 70-90 OC ). CONVECTION OVER OTHER AREAS: SCATTERED TO BROKEN, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA, GULF OF MARTABAN AND TENASSERIM COAST. SCATTERED, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS) 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY* ARABIAN SEA: SCATTERED, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE SOUTH ARABIAN SEA, LAKSHADWEEP ISLAND AND MALDIVES AREA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE GULF OF CAMBAY AND CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY REMARKS NIL=