WTIN20 DEMS 280300 DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 28.08.2026 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 28.08.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 28.08.2026. BAY OF BENGAL: THE LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD LAY OVER NORTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 28TH AUGUST 2026. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDED UPTO 4.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO BECOME LESS MARKED DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING WEST BENGAL-NORTH ODISHA COASTS LAY OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COASTS EXTENDED UPTO 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL TITLING SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH HEIGHT AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 28TH AUGUST 2026. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING WEST BENGAL-NORTH ODISHA COASTS AROUND 29TH AUGUST, 2026 AS PER INSAT 3D(S), LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) LAY OVER NORTHEAST UTTAR PRADESH AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER UTTAR PRADESH, WITH MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES (CTT) RANGING FROM -70OC TO -90OC AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH MADHYA PRADESH, WITH (CTT) RANGING FROM -40OC TO -70OC. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL, THE ANDAMAN SEA, ARAKAN COAST, GULF OF MARTABAN AND TENASSERIM COAST. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS) 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIAN SEA: YESTERDAY\U2019S UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER KONKAN & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BECAME LESS MARKED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 28TH AUGUST 2026. CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. SCATTERED, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE SOUTH ARABIAN SEA SOUTH OF LATITUDE 10.0 0 N, MALDIVES AND COMORIN AREA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, GULF OF KUTCH, GULF OF CAMBAY, EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND THE LAKSHADWEEP ISLAND AREA. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY REMARKS \U2013 NIL=