WTIN20 DEMS 291500 REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE -TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 29.09.2026 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 29.09.2026 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 29.09.2026. SUB: DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL MYANMAR AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH THE DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL MYANMAR AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST- NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 18 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 29TH SEPTEMBER 2026 OVER COASTAL MYANMAR AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH NEAR LATITUDE 20.7ON AND LONGITUDE 94.3OE, ABOUT 80 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINDAT (48045, MYANMAR), 170 KM EAST OF KYAUKTAW (48051, MYANMAR), 260 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COXS BAZAR (41992, BANGLADESH), AND 320 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG (41977, BANGLADESH), 370 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AIZAWL (42727, MIZORAM, INDIA). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL-MARKED LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER COASTAL MYANMAR AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH & NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH AND ADJOINING AREAS OF MYANMAR, MIZORAM, TRIPURA & NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA AND ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT. PYAY (48077, MYANMAR) REPORTED MSLP AS 1004.6 HPA. MINBU (48064, MYANMAR) REPORTED MSLP 1004.7 HPA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND (MSW) SPEED AS 40 0 /01 KT. AS PER INSAT 3DS IMAGERY AT 1200 UTC OF 29TH SEPTEMBER, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NAGALAND, MANIPUR, MIZORAM, NORTHEAST & EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, MYANMAR AND THAILAND (MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS -70 TO -90OC). REMARKS MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX IS IN PHASE 1 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1 AND IS LIKELY TO LOOP IN THE SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 3-4 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1. THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS HAS FURTHER REDUCED AND IS AROUND 50 X 10-6 S -1 AT 850 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICALLY IT IS EXTENDING UPTO MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS FURTHER REDUCED AND IS ABOUT 10 X 10-6 S -1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X 10-6 S -1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE MID SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) AND ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SYSTEM AREA AND ALONG THE PREDICTED PATH. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS SUPPORTIVE. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA GRADUALLY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT W.R.T NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT ALONG AND OFF MYANMAR\U2013BANGLADESH COASTS TOWARDS NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING BANGLADESH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE FROM NUMERICAL MODELS: BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE FROM VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS: CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ESTIMATION OF CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY: MOD CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN PREDICTION OF FORECAST TRACK: MOD CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN PREDICTION OF FORECAST INTENSITY: MOD CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL MYANMAR AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL-MARKED LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER COASTAL MYANMAR AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH & NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH AND ADJOINING AREAS OF MYANMAR, MIZORAM, TRIPURA & NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. MONICA SHARMA SCIENTIST-E RSMC NEW DELHI=