WTIN20 DEMS 300825 DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 30.08.2026 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 30.08.2026 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 30.08.2026. BAY OF BENGAL: YESTERDAY\U2019S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING WEST BENGAL-NORTH ODISHA COASTS LAY AS A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH AUGUST, 2026. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDED UPTO 7.6 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS NORTH ODISHA-GANGETIC WEST BENGAL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS PER INSAT 3D(S), LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) LAY OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING GANGETIC WEST BENGAL-NORTH ODISHA COASTS AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH JHARKHAND, CHHATTISGARH, ODISHA COASTS, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL, COASTAL BANGLADESH AND NORTH BAY OF BENGAL, WITH MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES (CTT) RANGING FROM -70OC TO -90OC. SCATTERED TO BROKEN, LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE NORTH & CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARAKAN COAST. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, THE ANDAMAN SEA, THE GULF OF MARTABAN AND THE TENASSERIM COAST. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS) 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS LOW LOW NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIAN SEA: SCATTERED TO BROKEN, LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, THE MALDIVES AND THE COMORIN AREA. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE CENTRAL & SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND THE LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS AREA. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS 120-144 HOURS 144-168 HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY CLOUD DISTRIBUTION: (A) ISOLATED: <25%, SCATTERED:25-50%, BROKEN: 51-75%, SOLID:>75%, CONVECTION INTENSITY: (A) WEAK: CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT)>- 25OC, (B) MODERATE: CTT:-25OCTO-40OC, (C) INTENSE: CTT: -41OCTO -70OC AND (D) VERY INTENSE::LESS THAN -70OC PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) :NIL:0%, LOW:1-33%, MODERATE:34-66% AND HIGH:67-100% THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES. VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC BULLETINS. REMARKS \U2013 NIL WML: WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA=