WTPN21 PGTW 262000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 167.4E TO 25.8N 166.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 167.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 167.4E, IS NOW LOCATED 20.2N 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75NM OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE LLC REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC, WITH WINDS OF 25-30KTS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 91W TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE ROBUST SUPPORT FOR RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 272000Z.// NNNN WTPN21 PGTW 262000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 167.4E TO 25.8N 166.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 167.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 167.4E, IS NOW LOCATED 20.2N 167.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE LLC REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC, WITH WINDS OF 25-30KTS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 91W TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE ROBUST SUPPORT FOR RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 272000Z.// NNNN